U.S. President-elect Donald Trump gestures during a campaign event at Dorton Arena, in Raleigh, N.C. on Nov. 4.Jonathan Drake/Reuters
Donald Trump is nothing if not predictable.
His landslide victory in the U.S. presidential election, coupled with Republican control of the Senate, will refocus attention on America’s growing US$84.4-billion international trade deficit. Narrowing that gap is about to take on new urgency given Mr. Trump’s populist pronouncements on global tariffs.
Mr. Trump is a man who likes to take inspiration from himself. So, it’s a foregone conclusion that he will replicate his signature moves during his second term as president – including the spurious use of national-security exemptions for trade.
Although national-security exceptions were originally intended to be used by countries in the rarest of circumstances, it has become routine for the United States to invoke national-security grounds to justify tariffs or to block deals.
Democrats share the blame for this development. Instead of ripping up Mr. Trump’s blueprint for trade, President Joe Biden adopted his practice of using national security as a pretense for protectionism.
Americans certainly aren’t fussed if their presidents sometimes make claims that lack credibility or create chaos for rule-based trade. They’ve been persuaded that protectionism is the new pathway to prosperity.
After vowing to put a “ring around the collar” of the U.S. economy, president-elect Mr. Trump now has a mandate to dust off his old playbook and will further tie trade to national security.
China may be his main target given the relative size of its trade gap on goods. But make no mistake, Canada will be in Mr. Trump’s crosshairs, too.
Canada’s steel and aluminum industries, in particular, should be bracing themselves. Ottawa might be Washington’s closest ally but history teaches us that Canada does not garner any special consideration from Mr. Trump.
In 2018, during his first term as president, Mr. Trump imposed a 25-per-cent surtax on imports of Canadian steel and 10 per cent on aluminum citing “national-security” grounds.
“The idea that we are somehow a national-security threat to the United States is quite frankly insulting and unacceptable,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at the time.
Mr. Trump, though, rationalized the tariffs in a call with Mr. Trudeau by referencing the War of 1812 with Britain, according to CNN. “Didn’t you guys burn down the White House?” Mr. Trump reportedly said.
Canada later imposed retaliatory tariffs on imports of various U.S. products in 2018. Then the following year, both countries reached an agreement to remove their respective tariffs.
But that trade truce turned out to be a head fake by Washington. In 2020, the Trump administration reimposed a 10-per-cent tariff on Canadian aluminum imports – once again citing “national-security” concerns. Months later, Mr. Trump lifted those tariffs but his trade tactics tainted bilateral relations.
Canada’s steel industry, which is holding a conference in Calgary next week, is kidding itself if it thinks it will be spared by Mr. Trump during his second term as president.
Ottawa may have emulated Washington last month by imposing its own 25-per-cent tariff on steel and aluminum products from China. But by doing so, Canada also reinforced its willingness to fall in line with U.S. demands – just as it did by caving to U.S. pressure and imposing a 100-per-cent surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
Mr. Trump already considers Canada a pushover. He will not hesitate to once again use the threat of punitive tariffs under the guise of national security to advance U.S. interests during the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.
Concocting more national-security concerns against defenceless old Canada may seem laughable, but how exactly would Ottawa keep Mr. Trump in check?
There’s no point in Canada launching a challenge at the World Trade Organization. The WTO’s appellate body, which settles international trade disputes between member countries, has been ineffectual for years because of Washington’s antics.
Mr. Trump was the first to hobble it by refusing to appoint new members. Mr. Biden followed suit by undermining its authority. Both men objected to the idea that national-security claims are reviewable by the WTO appellate body.
The Biden administration publicly criticized the WTO panel in 2022 after it ruled that tariffs previously imposed by Mr. Trump on foreign aluminum and steel broke global trade rules. (Countries including China, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey disputed those tariffs, which were also levied by Mr. Trump on national-security grounds in 2018.)
“The United States will not cede decision-making over its essential security to WTO panels,” assistant United States trade representative Adam Hodge stated in December, 2022.
Here’s the scary part: Mr. Trump is less restrained than Mr. Biden.
Invoking the national-security exception became the rule during Mr. Trump’s first presidency. He will have no compunction about invoking it again to beat up on Canadian businesses.
The truth no longer matters.
U.S. voters have become anesthetized to risks posed by autarky. Free trade be damned as long as it is America first.