U.S. politics has never been more partisan and polarized. It’s why Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are going to spend the next three months attacking the other as the champion of extremist ideas that are the polar opposite of their own. Their most loyal voters will love it.
But on a series of core economic issues – trade, industrial policy, oil and gas, the border – President Joe Biden’s administration and the previous (and possibly future) Trump administration share more common ground than either campaign will admit. There are differences, but they are often on details rather than fundamentals. What’s more, many differences are less about substance and more about how things are talked about – or not talked about.
Let’s start with an area of agreement that dare not speak its name: oil and gas.
In the 2020 election, Mr. Trump accused Mr. Biden of planning to “destroy” America’s oil industry. It’s a claim Republicans have repeated throughout the Biden-Harris administration, in past, present and future tenses. The GOP platform, in contrast, promises to “unleash American Energy,” to make the U.S. “Energy Independent, and even Dominant again,” and to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL.”
The implication is that, with a Democrat in the White House, the industry is choking on a short leash, output is falling, and America is energy-dependent on Middle Eastern dictators.
Nothing could be further from the truth. U.S. oil production has risen sharply since 2010, a trend that continued through the Trump and Biden administrations, interrupted only by the pandemic. U.S. oil output hit an all-time high in 2023. The U.S. produced more oil last year than any other country, and more oil than any country in a single year, ever.
The U.S. is also the world’s largest producer of natural gas, with output rising during the Biden administration. A country that eight years ago exported no liquid natural gas is now the world’s largest exporter of LNG. Under Mr. Biden, job growth in the fossil-fuel sector has outpaced job growth in green energy, according to a recent analysis from Reuters.
Republicans loudly promise “drill, baby, drill,” but Mr. Biden has quietly – very quietly – practised something similar. It was economically and electorally necessary, though it doesn’t sit well with an important part of the Democratic base. To mollify and distract those voters, the Obama administration killed the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada, and then, after Mr. Trump resurrected it, Mr. Biden killed it again. The public execution of a Canadian oil project provided happy cover for the rest of the U.S. oil industry, allowing it to continue with business as usual.
When it comes to oil and gas, the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats is wide. Actual policy gap? Considerably narrower.
Something similar is happening on trade and industrial policy.
Mr. Trump broke the bipartisan Washington consensus in favour of free trade. The Biden administration adjusted course, but did not U-turn. It kept many of its predecessor’s tariffs, and crafted new subsidies and protections for strategic U.S. industries, from autos to semiconductors.
Beneath the appearance of irreconcilable Democratic-Republican polarization, a new trade consensus is forming. Both parties back some forms of protectionism and industrial policy, with China the main (but not the only) target.
As with oil and gas, the parties have differences. Democrats often talk about protectionism and subsidies to green the economy; Republicans just talk about jobs. And while the Biden administration slimmed the Trump-era tariffs on allies and amped up the focus on China, Mr. Trump has talked about imposing a 10-per-cent tariff across the board, regardless of country.
Either way, managed trade and “fair trade” are now mainstream ideas in both parties. For Canada, a Harris administration would almost certainly follow in Mr. Biden’s footsteps, offering a more measured, prudent and ally-friendly application. Mr. Trump threatens, and might deliver, a more reckless and ruthless version. But the parties are not poles apart.
On immigration and the border, Mr. Biden’s Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill were able to strike a deal earlier this year – only to have Mr. Trump order his congressional minions to kill it. Mr. Biden responded to the death of the legislation by issuing executive orders that included some of the same measures, such as closing the southern border when daily asylum claims exceed a certain level.
As with oil and gas, the makeup of the Democratic coalition means the border is a fraught subject for Democrats. For three years, Mr. Biden acted little and spoke less. But month after month of record numbers of people crossing the Mexican border to claim asylum forced him to act, and to move closer to Mr. Trump’s position.
Republicans and Democrats still have major differences on this issue. Mainstream Democrats want quiet, legal and humane border control; Mr. Trump wants crisis and the spectacle of enforcement. But the two parties have enough common ground that there was a congressional majority for a bill to improve border enforcement, speed up asylum claims, and more rapidly admit genuine refugees while removing others. Mr. Trump killed the deal because it would have passed, and it would have been popular.