Bloc Quebecois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauve greets supporters as he arrives at the party's byelection night party for the riding of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun on Tuesday, Sept.17 in Montreal.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
The federal Liberals lost yet another major by-election Monday night, a sign that their Quebec base is at risk in the next election, while the New Democrats held on to their stronghold in Winnipeg – races that both parties had characterized as must-wins.
Tensions were high late into the night in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding, where Liberal candidate Laura Palestini was defending the seat in a tight three-way race with the NDP’s Craig Sauvé and Louis-Philippe Sauvé for the Bloc Québécois. Conservative candidate Louis Ialenti was not expected to be competitive. Ultimately, the Bloc won with 28 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberals with 27.2 per cent, the NDP with 26.1 per cent and the Conservatives with 11.6 per cent.
Meanwhile, in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP breathed a sigh of relief when it declared victory and the Conservative candidate conceded defeat. With all polls reporting, the NDP’s Leila Dance was at 48.1 per cent, the Tories’ Colin Reynolds was at 44 per cent, and the Liberals were at 4.8 per cent.
The Montreal loss for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals marks only the third time since 1984 that the party has lost the riding. Each of the other losses came when the Liberals were at historic lows: first during Brian Mulroney’s 1984 Progressive Conservative sweep, then when the NDP’s Orange Wave of 2011 pushed the Liberals to third-place status in the House of Commons.
Monday’s defeats were already baked into the Liberal psyche, given the party’s standing in national public opinion polls and its loss in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s just three months ago, said Scott Reid, a Liberal strategist and principal at Feschuk.Reid.
But it’s still painful, he said, and cautioned that the state of play facing the Liberals should be “intolerable,” noting that the summer is now bookended by two significant defeats.
“They’re traumatic losses for a party that considers itself to be the natural governing party,” he said, adding that they will “provoke persistent comparisons to 2011,” when the party won just 34 seats across the country.
The Bloc win in Montreal was not widely expected and likely even surprised the party’s candidate, said Liberal strategist and director at TACT consulting Jeremy Ghio. He said the separatist party “used every tool at their disposal,” including popular provincial party leader and former Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe.
“While I don’t expect this riding to remain in Bloc Québécois hands for long, the message from voters is directed more toward Justin Trudeau than to the Bloc,” Mr. Ghio said.
Both Mr. Trudeau and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh maintained ahead of the by-elections that they will stay on as the leaders of their parties no matter the results.
Early in the summer, the NDP raised expectations that it would win Elmwood-Transcona and also pick up LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, but closer to election day, party officials said a win in Winnipeg was job No. 1.
NDP candidate Leila Dance (middle) celebrates as she is elected a member of Parliament representing Winnipeg’s Elmwood-Transcona riding at the NDP celebration party in Winnipeg on September 16, 2024.david lipnowski/The Canadian Press
The single victory was a “bare minimum” result for Mr. Singh, said Zain Velji, a Prairie New Democrat and partner at the Northweather digital communications agency. But he added that it gives the NDP Leader breathing room to continue his strategy of distancing the party from the Liberals – a strategy that started by ending its deal with the minority government for automatic support in exchange for policy concessions.
“Jagmeet Singh raised the stakes for himself in this race – more so than he would have if he would have kept his confidence and supply agreement,” Mr. Velji said.
What the win allows him to do is “show that there’s a path” for the NDP.
The Conservatives had hoped to score a victory over the NDP in Elmwood-Transcona, putting in significant resources to try to eke out the win. The riding is in part made up of the working-class voters the Conservatives are trying to win over across the country, but prior to the election they called a win in Winnipeg a long shot.
While the loss is disappointing, Ginny Roth, a partner at Crestview Strategy who was Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s director of communications during his leadership race, said “it’s not a seat that the Conservatives need to win to form government.”