Good morning. The heat wave blazing across the States makes its way to Canada this week – more on that below, along with a law school’s clash over Israel and the young women voting for Trump. But first:
Today’s headlines
- Calgary residents cut water consumption to record low as city placed under state of emergency
- Israeli PM Netanyahu disbands his inner war cabinet, official says
- Quebec tenants more likely to face a disputed eviction in areas with more visible minorities, immigrants
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Trying to keep cool in a heat dome.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Weather Report
Can we beat the heat?
It was a boiling weekend around America: 35 degrees in Atlanta; 43 degrees in Phoenix. This week, the heat dome that transforms cities into convection ovens pushes into Canada, moving first into Ontario and Quebec and then to the Maritimes. Is this the prelude to a scorching summer? Armel Castellan, an Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist, helps us look ahead.
What exactly is a heat dome?
Imagine a big, dome-shaped lid over an area that’s keeping all of the air blocked. That lack of flow is a big part of what makes it so dangerous. But the air is also quite thick, because there’s high pressure, so it’s descending and you’re dealing with temperature increases – day after day, night after night. It’s very oppressive. And Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada will certainly feel it in spades this week.
Should I brace myself now for a bad summer?
I mean, we have high confidence that it’ll be warmer than the seasonal average. But that average goes back to the early ‘90s, and it’s quite a bit lower than what we’ve seen in the last decade, or even the last three years. 2023 was the warmest year in recorded history. 2024 won’t be far behind – it might be warmer still. But it won’t necessarily be warm from start to finish. Part of what makes this week feel so warm is that it’s early in the season, and we haven’t acclimatized the way we will have by August. I do think we’ll see both ends of the spectrum – periods where the west warms up, say, and the east is generally cooler.
So I can bank on a bit of relief. But what about wildfires?
There’s been a deficit of rain and snow over the past 2½ years, and it puts a lot of pressure on the wet months, typically May and June, to show up and be overachievers. It only takes a week to 10 days of warmer conditions to dry out your recent rains – then we’re off to the races and wildfire behaviour becomes pretty dramatic. There’s still a lot of dryness in the usual suspects – northwestern Alberta, northeastern B.C., southern Northwest Territories – though wildfires may not be as dramatic as last year.
If the Earth warms up two degrees, Canada gets four degrees hotter. Why is that?
It’s related to Arctic amplification, which is a term that doesn’t get as much limelight as heat domes. When you don’t have as much snow cover in the winter, you’re exposing darker ground, which absorbs more heat. The same is true for a lack of sea ice, which can’t reflect incoming solar radiation. So it’s warming the north much more quickly, and that heat generates more melt, and it’s a feedback loop. Southern Canada, where most of us live, is warming at roughly twice the global rate, but the North is actually three if not four times as warm.
You mentioned last summer was the hottest in history; the United Nations is using terms like “climate hell.” What’s the vibe like among meteorologists?
We’re obviously very aware of the climate crisis unfolding before our eyes. It can be tricky to feel hugely hopeful. Yet we have seen, at a global scale, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and projections for how warm the world will be by 2100 have bumped down a few tenths of a degree. The gases that are in the atmosphere now are there for hundreds of years – there’s no stopping that. But there is stopping how much more we pump out. We’re already seeing a few adjustments to the scientific outlook, and that’s a hopeful message.
The Shot
‘Any student who signed that letter committed professional suicide.’
A Toronto Metropolitan University student.Sammy Kogan/The Globe and Mail
A student petition on Israel sent a Toronto law school’s progressive ideals crashing into Bay Street’s hard realities. Read Robyn Doolittle’s story and listen to her on today’s episode of The Decibel here.
The Wrap
What else we’re following
At home: The Trudeau government will make good on its 2019 campaign promise to stop open-net salmon farms on B.C.’s coast – five years from now.
Abroad: The conservative young women at a San Antonio summit don’t want to have it all: They want to be feminine (not feminist), they want to “out-breed the left” and they want Trump back in the White House.
In the water: Great white sharks, apparently – they’ve been spotted near beaches along the East Coast, so there’s that to worry about now.
In your head: Cadence Weapon’s delightful rap Connor McDavid (2024 Stanley Cup Version). Here’s hoping his line “Caught a few Ls / Now we back in the game” proves prophetic tomorrow night.