The Ontario Legislature is returning after an extended summer break with speculation of an early election call and a slew of announcements from the Progressive Conservative government intended to address gridlock and affordability, including a leaked plan to send cheques directly to residents in the new year.
Premier Doug Ford has made traffic concerns, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, a key focus this fall, with legislation targeting bike lanes and quicker highway construction expected to be tabled on Monday.
The government is also looking at ways to tackle skyrocketing energy demand and is keeping an eye on the impending review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, pitching the province to U.S. lawmakers as an attractive place to invest.
The fall economic statement – a mini-budget usually released in November – will be delivered early this year on Oct. 30, a week before the U.S. election. That document is expected to include more direct supports for families, including tax-rebate cheques of at least $200 for each person in the province, a government source confirmed to The Globe.
The Globe and Mail is not naming the source who was not authorized to disclose details before the policy is formally announced.
Mr. Ford recently mused that such cash influxes help stimulate the economy. The proposal, however, is being derided by opposition parties as a pre-election gimmick intended to distract from the real problems plaguing the province, such as a lack of family doctors and affordable homes.
While the next provincial vote is not scheduled until June, 2026, political observers as well as opposition leaders believe Mr. Ford will call the vote next year in the hopes of capitalizing on favourable poll numbers and before a national election that could install a Conservative government federally.
Mr. Ford has not ruled out an early provincial election, but has said there will be no vote this year.
Despite criticism from the opposition that Mr. Ford’s government took an almost five-month summer “vacation” – the legislature rose a week early, on June 6, and would normally have returned in September – the Premier recently insisted he had a “very, very busy summer.”
In a speech last week to Toronto’s Empire Club, Mr. Ford talked about billions in infrastructure spending for roads, highways and public transit, as well as his proposal to build a multibillion-dollar tunnel under Highway 401 in Toronto. He also went further than his transportation minister on bike lanes, vowing not only to block future lanes and review existing ones, but also saying he will bring “sanity back to bike-lane decisions” and rip some out.
“We need to, and will, remove and replace existing bike lanes on primary roads that are bringing traffic in our cities to an absolute standstill,” Mr. Ford said to applause.
Opposition parties, however, are planning to pitch their own visions for the province when the legislature returns.
Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles said that throughout her travels this summer, she heard from people in the province who are struggling to get by and can’t afford homes. She said the government’s plan to send people $200 cheques is a “stunt,” and that her party will focus on health care and education as the legislature returns.
“If Doug Ford really wanted to make life better for Ontarians, I’ve got some advice that I can give him. He should build homes. He should hire more doctors. He should fix our schools,” she said in an interview.
“He thinks he can buy peoples’ goodwill? I think it’s pretty shortsighted and it shows once again how desperate this government is.”
She also criticized the provincial Liberals – who have nine seats, not enough for official party status – as “desperate” and said she is trying to build a progressive movement to defeat Mr. Ford’s PCs in the next campaign.
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said her party will focus on issues such as a lack of access to family doctors, for-profit nursing agencies and “shady deals” such as the government’s decision to lease much of its Ontario Place site on Toronto’s waterfront to a private spa operator.
She said while Mr. Ford focuses on pre-election promises such as reducing bike lanes and sending out $200 cheques, her party is planning to propose a middle class tax cut, which she said Mr. Ford promised but failed to do.
“He’s masterful at gimmicks and distraction,” Ms. Crombie told The Globe in an interview.
Ms. Crombie, who has been leader for almost a year but doesn’t have a seat in the House, said she plans to be more “visible” at the legislature this fall, and her party is also set to release ads this month to introduce her to Ontarians. The party is also holding a big-ticket fundraiser in December, where Ms. Crombie hopes to raise at least $1-million for party coffers.
“The Ontario Liberal Party is the unofficial opposition and we are the real threat [to the government],” Ms. Crombie said.
The Ontario Green Party, which now has two members in the legislature, says it will focus on housing costs, climate action and public health care when the legislature returns.
Andrew McDougall, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto in Scarborough, said both opposition parties face huge challenges if they want to displace the PC government.
“The Liberals and the NDP have their work cut out for them,” he said. “They’re both way behind right now in the polls, so they’ve got an uphill battle to try to convince Ontarians that they’re the right choice if there’s an early election.”