Good morning. Wendy Cox here.
With opinion polls showing the NDP and the BC Conservatives in a dead heat midway through the campaign for the Oct. 19 election, wooing undecided voters will be key for both.
By that measure, tonight’s televised debate will be a crucial chance for BC Conservative Leader John Rustad to introduce himself.
When Rustad was ejected from the former BC United Official Opposition for his views on climate change in 2022, he was not well-known, despite a stint as minister when the BC Liberals were in power.
But Rustad hitched his political future to the Conservative brand, one in a near zombie state for almost a century in British Columbia, although surging in popularity nationally.
Indeed, the NDP last week were so concerned that Rustad was basking too conveniently in federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s glow that the NDP is seeking to file a court petition challenging Elections BC’s decision in August to allow the BC Conservatives to change their party’s official name on the ballot to the Conservative Party. The NDP is concerned the change in name is a deliberate effort to confuse voters with the Conservatives’ federal counterpart.
Eby has said he passed up an opportunity to call a snap election when former leader John Horgan stepped down, preferring instead, he said, to spend two years pushing an aggressive housing agenda and health care reforms in a plan to coast the party’s high approval ratings comfortably into another term.
Instead, the NDP’s campaign has leaned heavily into attacking Rustad, his policies and his candidates.
Rustad has given Eby ample fodder: The BC Conservative Leader first “clarified” on Sunday, then apologized on Monday for comments he made about the Nuremberg trials and COVID-19 measures, comments he acknowledged “offended some people.”
“My comments in and around that relating in any way relating to the two, I apologize for that,” he said at a news conference in downtown Vancouver. “That certainly was not my intent with regards to that issue.”
Rustad made the comments in July at an online meeting where he was asked where he stood on “Nuremberg 2.0,” an idea that those behind public-health measures established during the pandemic should be put on trial.
The B.C. Conservative Leader said in a statement on the social-media platform X that he “misunderstood the question” about whether he supported “Nuremberg 2.0.”
Rustad and some of his candidates were under attack at last week’s radio debate, too, as Eby and the NDP highlighted controversial comments on issues such as vaccines and climate change.
Still, Stewart Prest, a lecturer at the University of B.C.’s political science department, told The Globe’s legislative reporter Justine Hunter that those tactics may not be having the effect that Eby had hoped for.
“This has been a very sticky campaign,” he said in an interview. “For the NDP, it hardly matters what they do. They have a certain amount of support, and it doesn’t look like their support is declining, but it doesn’t seem like they’ve had much success in causing voters to question where Mr. Rustad is coming from, as much as they tried to make that a focus.”
Voters are looking for substantive policy in this election and some headway in the thorniest issues facing whichever party forms government. Sonia Fursteneau’s Green Party is lagging far behind, but she has been pitching her team as key to offering the balance of power in a minority legislature.
A survey by the Vancouver Board of Trade found the top five election issues for voters are health care and housing, affordability, public safety, the drug crisis and the economy. (The economy ranked first as an issue for business leaders.)
As Justine wrote this weekend, the next government will inherit a record deficit – the current estimate is $10-billion – with growing debt-servicing costs and rising demand for public services and housing because of a growing population. The fragile economy, shrinking on a per-capita basis, is heavily dependent on volatile global commodity prices.
Depending on which party leader is speaking, British Columbians face a bleak future, or good times are just ahead. Rustad has said he will balance the books by the end of his second term as premier – so in about eight years. The Conservatives have yet to release a costed platform.
The NDP platform released last week includes an extra $3-billion in spending next year, but Eby says the deficits will come down after that. He doesn’t have a target date for balance but estimates things will be “in a different cycle” in eight years.
So there is much murk in how the various promises will translate into policy. The two parties have differing approaches on the opioid crisis and on tackling the housing crisis. On Monday, the leaders sparred over public safety.
“This is going to be the last opportunity for any party to really shake things up,” Prest said.
This is the weekly British Columbia newsletter written by B.C. Editor Wendy Cox. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.