Taylor Swift performs at the Hard Rock stadium, in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Oct. 18.CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP/Getty Images
Toronto’s sagging tourism industry is hoping for a Taylor Swift lift, as the pop superstar’s six shows at Rogers Centre starting this week attract hundreds of thousands of fans expected to spend more than $150-million on hotels, food and friendship bracelets.
But the long-term effects of Swiftonomics remain questionable.
The six concerts – along with Los Angeles, more than in any other North American city – get under way Thursday and will be a welcome injection of visitors during off-peak season. Destination Toronto, the city’s tourism agency, estimates they will have an overall economic impact, including direct and indirect spending, of $282-million.
However, it’s unclear whether the descent of Ms. Swift and her legions of Swifties on Toronto will actually boost the city’s tourism business in the months and years ahead, as it struggles to attract the same number of annual international visitors it did before the pandemic.
Toronto is still only bringing in 85 per cent of the U.S. tourists it did in 2019. Visitors from China and other Asian countries are down even further amid geopolitical tensions and a hangover from COVID-19.
Andrew Weir, the president and CEO of Destination Toronto, says Ms. Swift could help the city shake it off.
“There’s a very important ‘destination lift’ that happens when you host major events like this,” Mr. Weir said in an interview, arguing that Swifties from the U.S. or overseas who have never been to Toronto before may come back after being introduced to the city. “Having a concert like this as a trigger for a first visit is very impactful and hopefully helps us build a Toronto fan for life.”
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But Ed Mansfield, a consultant who has produced detailed studies on the effects of dozens of major events in Vancouver – including the 2010 Winter Olympics – says these kinds of concerts, even involving a star as massive as the Pennsylvania-born Ms. Swift, are unlikely to drive long-term visitor numbers. (Ms. Swift is due to end her Eras Tour next month in Vancouver with three shows.)
“In 25 years, I can’t recall a single concert that resulted in any appreciable post-event visitation,” Dr. Mansfield said in an interview, adding that there are often anecdotal accounts of some concertgoers returning to a destination but not any statistically measurable after-effects for tourism overall.
“I think, when people come for a musical event, a concert, they are coming for the event. And once the event is finished, they are on to other things,” he said, adding that even major sporting events similarly offer just short-term boosts to tourism.
Regardless, Mr. Weir says Toronto is making a special effort to spread the short-term Swiftie dollars around. There’s no question that anyone paying ticket prices that, according to the resale site StubHub, range from $1,265 to $9,212 likely has money to spend on hotels, shopping and restaurants while they are here. Based on numbers from other cities, Toronto officials estimate that each Swiftie – 50,000 of them a night, for a total of 300,000 people – will fork out on average about $1,300.
There are “Taylgate” parties set up at the nearby Toronto Convention Centre, with $55 tickets and an estimated 12,000 fans expected to attend. But Destination Toronto has also launched a scavenger hunt that involves deciphering clues inspired by her songs, leading participants to different locations in the city. Prizes range from Swift-themed gift boxes to a stay at the Fairmont Royal York and dinner atop the CN Tower. Restaurants and bars across the city have added Taylor Swift-themed cocktails.
And the Toronto Zoo – in the city’s far eastern end, nowhere near the downtown Rogers Centre – is offering discounted admission with a Swift concert ticket, a friendship bracelet or a non-perishable food item from Tuesday to Nov. 24.
According to the zoo’s website, zoo-themed friendship bracelets will be on sale at the park’s Zootique, along with zoo-themed Taylor Swift T-shirts. Swifties will be able to take a tour of the zoo’s big cats on exhibit – with friendship bracelet “trading posts” along the route – as a tribute to Ms. Swift’s well-known love of regular-sized cats, mentioned in her 2023 song Karma: “Karma is a cat purring in my lap ‘cause it loves me.”
The zoo is also offering a chauffeured VIP big-cat-tour of the “Tayronto Zoo” that includes “behind the scenes access,” “the finest personalized service” and a catered lunch – for $450 a person.
Whether the Swift effect is a long-term tourism boost or not, the city’s size and existing profile mean it has been able to attract a stream of future mega-events beyond Ms. Swift. Next summer, Toronto will play host to one of the few North American dates for the highly anticipated reunion of British rock band Oasis, as well as four concerts by Coldplay.
Ontario Tourism Minister Stan Cho – who is attending one of the Swift concerts with his wife, whom he says is a dedicated fan – believes Ms. Swift’s shows are an “economic driver” like no other for Toronto tourism: “Taylor Swift is going to be a great entry point for people who have never been to the city before.”
In a report released Monday, credit-rating firm Morningstar DBRS said Ms. Swift’s Eras Tour, the highest-grossing concert tour in history, with an estimated US$2.2-billion in revenues expected by the end of the year, will create a small, short-term boost for the economy in Toronto and Vancouver – but nothing more. The report estimates that direct spending by Swifties will amount to a third of all direct spending from all major events in Toronto held the previous year.
However, the overall impact will still be minimal, the report says, as tourism overall accounts for just 1 per cent of Toronto’s gross domestic product and about 4 per cent of Vancouver’s. And it will also make little difference to government tax revenue: while Toronto pegs the Swiftian tax boost for the federal and provincial governments at $40-million, Morningstar DBRS calculates that the municipal government, which spends $17-billion a year, will receive just $5-million to $7.5-million in hotel tax, parking fees and public transit fares.
“The absolute value of the Eras Tour’s impact on Toronto and Vancouver’s economies is expected to be extraordinary relative to any other concert event,” the report reads. “However, the overall impact will provide little more than a modest short-term boost to these cities as they would not be able to capture much of this economic activity within their revenue mix, resulting in minimal fiscal benefit and no credit impact.”
Fans of Taylor Swift have enthusiastically made, and traded, friendship bracelets at concerts and other events during her Eras Tour. The trend is so popular, bead sales have seen massive gains at supply stores.
The Canadian Press