Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Citi analyst Ariel Rosa is surprised shares of TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) traded higher on Tuesday following the release of weaker-than-anticipated third-quarter results, attributing gains to low investor expectations and hopes for margin upside from the potential for a turnaround.
However, after cautioning against interpreting the weak results “as a direct read-through to the LTL [less-than truckload] industry, as many of TFI’s challenges are clearly company-specific,” Mr. Rosa emphasized “warnings of excess industry-wide capacity and increasingly aggressive pricing from peers warrant caution.”
“We lower TFI estimates to reflect commentary from Tuesday’s earnings call,” he said. “CEO Alain Bedard acknowledged that progress has been disappointingly slow at its U.S. LTL operations, with legacy behavior and poor service levels still embedded in operations, despite 3 years since TFI took ownership of legacy UPS Freight. Mr. Bedard refuted the idea that the acquisition was a mistake, but the fact that this question was posed is in itself revealing, in our view.”
TSX-listed shares of the Montreal-based transportation and logistics provider closed up 0.7 per cent on Tuesday after it reported adjusted earnings per share of US$1.60, below both Mr. Rosa’s US$1.83 estimate and the consensus projection of US$1.77. That’s gain of just 2 per cent year-over-year despite a full-quarter of contribution from its acquisition of specialty truckload carrier Daseke back in April.
“TFI’s challenges center on its U.S. LTL operations, where CEO Bedard noted that ongoing poor service has hindered operations, limited pricing, and prevented margin improvement,” he said. “Mr. Bedard attributed these challenges to sub-optimal entrenched culture that has focused on the wrong objectives. Whereas its U.S. LTL network has capacity for 40k shipments per day, it is currently hauling only 22k, reflecting industry-wide soft demand and TFI-specific service and capacity challenges. On a positive note, TFI continues to generate solid free cash flow, with a 2024 target of $750-800-million It pushed out the timeline for a potential Truckload spin as it aims to reach a market cap of $18-20-billion (from $12-billion today) giving the post-spin company sufficient scale to be competitive. This implies a potential $4-5-billion. acquisition on the horizon for 2H25, with another $200-$300-million of tuck-ins over the coming year.”
After cutting his 2025 and 2026 earnings expectations, Mr. Rosa lowered his target price for TFI shares to US$158 from US$159 with a “buy” recommendation (unchanged) as “turnaround potential, strong FCF generation, and TFI’s long-term track record counter-balance near-term concerns.” The average target on the Street is US$165.63, according to LSEG data.
“We rate TFII a Buy,” he said. “TFII has an exceptional track record of acquiring businesses and improving operations to drive value for shareholders. The company’s management has honed a repeatable playbook that it consistently applies to both large acquisitions and small tuck-ins across various trucking businesses. The current M&A environment has also been favorable for TFII to conduct accretive M&A. We view CEO Alain Bedard and his management team as among the best capital allocators in the industry. Margin improvement opportunities exist at TFII’s U.S. LTL segment (legacy UPS Freight) and the newly acquired Daseke truckload business. The impending spin/sale of TFII’s Truckload segment could also enable the remaining LTL business to see its multiple re-rate.”
Other analysts making adjustments include:
* RBC’s Walter Spracklin to US$160 from US$167 with an “outperform” rating.
“TFII posted weaker-than-expected Q3 results and guided down fairly materially. That said, we point to: 1) the now reset bar on expectations; 2) the strong FCF generation that has led to a pristine balance sheet and significant optionality for M&A / opportunistic buybacks; 3) meaningful upside in an improving macro stemming from strong operating leverage; and 4) a still cheap valuation, even on reset numbers. Accordingly, we reiterate our OP and flag TFII as a very attractive investment opportunity, especially for those constructive on a macro inflection,” said Mr. Spracklin.
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $198 from $209 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Although we remain confident the company will ultimately generate better margins in its LTL and TL operations and underlying market conditions will improve, we still expect weak end market conditions to endure over at least the next 1-2 quarters,” said Mr. Doerksen.
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $204 from $209 with a “hold” rating.
“TFII’s 3Q results showed that trying to improve service while cutting costs is no easy feat. In our view, today’s price action likely had an element of short covering support and we would wait for a more attractive price before stepping in given the service deterioration and the M&A/spin-off timeline being pushed to the right. While we continue to view TFII as a high-quality long-term FCF compounder, we expect the shares to remain range-bound given the lack of near-term catalysts,” said Mr. Poirier.
* TD Cowen’s Jason Seidl to US$171 from US$180 with a “buy” rating.
* JP Morgan’s Brian Ossenbeck to US$178 from US$181 with a “buy” rating.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang to US$166 from US$174 with an “outperformer” rating.
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While he thinks Canadian National Railway Co. (CNR-T) delivered “solid results in a challenging quarter,” ATB Capital Markets analyst Chris Murray remains “cautious” its near-term outlook, citing softness in industrial volumes and limited visibility around international intermodal.
After the bell on Tuesday, CN reported revenue for the quarter of $4.110-billion, up 3.1 per cent year-over-year and exceeding the Street’s $4.089-billion estimate but below Mr. Murray’s $4.193-billion projection. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share grew 1.8 per cent to $1.72, which was 3 cents below the analyst’s expectation but a penny ahead of the consensus.
“While macro conditions remain a headwind for certain freight types, we remain constructive on the strength of the Company’s tri-coastal network, diversified freight mix, and improving execution, which has been partially masked by various challenges throughout 2024,” the analyst said. “While the four-day work stoppage and wildfires challenged the volume recovery story in Q3/24, volume trends have improved off 2023 levels, with a constructive outlook for grain harvests in Canada and the US, nor.m.alizing intermodal volumes and healthy pricing conditions all supportive of stronger growth and operating leverage in Q3/24 and 2025. While 2025 guidance will not be released until January, management reiterated that CN-specific growth opportunities and improving operations position it for growth in 2025, despite softer industrial activity.
“RTM guidance implies 3.0-per-cent volume growth in Q4/24 (ATB estimate: 2.9 per cent), which requires an acceleration in volumes in the latter part of the quarter as weekly data indicate that volumes are down 2.7 per cent year-over-year in October. Management’s Q4 volume outlook is underpinned by expectations for strength in grain and normalizing international intermodal volumes, which it expects to offset softer demand for industrial freight and domestic intermodal, though we remain cautious on the anticipated near-term recovery in international intermodal volumes plus remain cognizant of further potential port labour disruptions.”
Mr. Murray emphasized both volumes and margins were impacted by non-recurring items during the quarter, particularly a labour stoppage and wildfires, which investors should have expected following a profit warning in early September.
“CN reaffirmed guidance for low single-digit EPS growth, which implies low single-digit volume growth and a sub-60 O/R [operating ratio] in Q4,” said the analyst. “Management confirmed it has temporarily suspended buyback activity in response to leverage levels reaching its target range. While 2025 guidance will not be released until January, management reiterated that CN-specific growth opportunities and improving operations position it for growth in 2025 despite softer industrial activity.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” recommendation for CN shares, Mr. Murray raised his target by $1 to $168 based on valuation adjustments despite trimming his earnings expectations through 2026. The average target on the Street is $174.60.
Other analysts making target adjustments include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Benoit Poirier to $180 from $181 with a “buy” rating.
“In our view, the implied level of volume growth needed in 4Q to meet guidance will be difficult to achieve, mainly due to an unsupportive intermodal backdrop as many retailers have already frontloaded their US-bound holiday imports. We expect a muted peak season. On the positive side, given the lower base and following the target cut in September which reset expectations, we believe consensus for 2025 and 2026 is now far more achievable,” said Mr. Poirier.
* Citi’s Ariel Rosa to US$126 from US$125 with a “neutral” rating.
“The company maintained its guide for low-single-digit EPS growth for full-year 2024 on flat industrial production, with volume (RTM) growth at the low end of a 3-5-per-cent range,” said Mr. Rosa. “CN maintained its medium-term outlook for high single digit EPS CAGR [compound annual growth rate] for 2024-2026, implying double-digit EPS growth in 2025. It expects new business to drive roughly half of its volume growth in coming years, maintaining its previous guide that it anticipates growth to come half through CN-specific initiatives and the other half from a macro recovery. CN is a top-performing rail in terms of operations and service, but a relative lack of near-term catalysts coupled with a valuation which we view as reasonable supports our Neutral rating. Upside could be limited, particularly if the demand environment remains sluggish.”
* TD Cowen’s Cherilyn Radbourne to $175 from $180 with a “hold” rating.
“Investor sentiment on CN has weakened based on the numerous earnings challenges encountered year-to-date, including a weaker-than-expected macro backdrop; therefore, we are not inclined to change our HOLD rating without line of sight to a potential catalyst,” she said. “That said, we will be watching Q4/24 developments closely, knowing that CN will start to benefit from easy prior-year comparables beginning in Q2/25.”
* National Bank’s Cameron Doerksen to $178 from $181 with an “outperform” rating.
“Recall that in September CN lowered its 2024 guidance to low-single-digit EPS growth versus mid-to-high single digit EPS growth previously while also updating its 2024-2026 EPS CAGR target from 10-15 per cent to high single digits,” said Mr. Doerksen. “We have slightly trimmed our Q4 forecast and have also made some minor downward adjustments to our 2025 forecast to reflect a still soft macro environment.”
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Precious metals equity analysts at National Bank expect to see improving production and lower cash costs in third-quarter financial reports across the sector “as inflationary pressures have been noted to be easing.”
“The Turkish lira and Mexican Peso continued to depreciate, providing a potential tailwind,” they said. “Under the current robust metal price environment and expected strong FCF generation, We are looking for management commentary around capital allocation plans, and we expect the overall financial leverage of the sector to come down as debt is likely to be repaid with some of the strong cash flows.”
In a report released Wednesday, they updated their estimates heading into earnings season, emphasizing “stabilizing opex and increasing gold prices leads to robust FCF generation.”
“In this more recent cost environment, aided by modestly weakening FX rates and a robust 2H24 operational outlook, we see the potential for COGS/GEO to improve and help drive robust FCF generation,” they said. “The gold price (shown under the quarter labels on the x-axis) has increased from a quarterly average of US$1,879/oz in 1Q22 to US$2,477/oz in 3Q24 and is expected to move even higher in 4Q24. We believe the sector needs to demonstrate this expected better cost control (and thus margin expansion) and disciplined capital allocation to attract the generalist investor to the space. In our view, Q3 earnings could be the catalyst the sector has been waiting for to see the generalist step in and invest in the space. We expect the strong FCF generation to lead to debt reduction as well as the funding of capital return programs (dividends and/or share repurchases), as well as advancing project pipelines. Projects are being advanced as cash flows rise, but for the most part, we see them being approved on a gold price assumption that seems conservative to the current spot price and more in line with where we see the industry fully-baked AISC curve shifting over the medium-to-longer term, which we believe is fair and should help avoid financial pitfalls going forward.”
“Consensus estimates remain fluid, thus modest differentials vs. NBF may be explained, while larger gaps are a source for our conviction beats/misses. At the time of writing, we have conviction in Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO), Eldorado Gold (ELD.TO), IAMGOLD (IMG.TO) and MAG Silver (MAG.TO) beating consensus Adj. EPS estimates, while we expect Wesdome (WDO.TO) to miss. ... For concentrate producers, provisional pricing adjustments are expected to be a net positive for 3Q24 earnings. Timing of sales could also prove positive on average realized gold and/or silver prices given the strong finish to the quarter for both metals.”
With their new estimates, the analysts made a group of target price changes. Don DeMarco made the largest adjustment, reducing his Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB-T) target by 10 per cent to $3.60 from $4 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $3.59.
The firm’s top picks heading into earnings season are:
Seniors
* Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target, up from $19. The average on the Street is $16.10.
Analyst Mike Parkin: “Kinross maintains significant opportunities for growth within its North American portfolio, which should help to further improve its geopolitical risk profile. This includes the Great Bear project (Ontario), the potential Curlew Basin restart (Washington State) and the Round Mountain U/G project (Nevada) that is under development.”
Intermediates/Juniors
* Calibre Mining Corp. (CXB-T)
Mr. DeMarco: “Valentine mine development in the homestretch, first pour approaching in ~Q2/25 and de-risking advanced, with capex normalized, a site visit showing well and led by a strong management team with a track record of success. We highlight visibility for a valuation re-rate to reflect increased production in Tier 1 jurisdiction.”
* Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA-T) with an “outperform” rating and $23 target, down from $24. Average: $22.78.
Mr. DeMarco: “Only pure-play silver producer on the TSX, with sight lines for NAV expansion vis-à-vis Zgounder plant ramp-up to 2,700 tpd [tons per day] (from current 700 tpd), with first pour achieved in early July. Drives peer-leading production CAGR, peaking at 9.0 million oz in 2028 per the Zgounder Feasibility Study (FS; Dec. 2021), over 4 times the FY23A of 2.0 million oz Ag. Resource accretion compelling with visibility for 150 million oz (NBF est., from the current 103 million). Strong operations with a FY23 guidance beat, while mining rates and throughput buoyant, lending de-risking and confidence ahead of expansion completion.”
* G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T) with an “outperform” rating and $15.75 (unchanged). Average: $15.92.
Analyst Rabi Nizami: “We expect G Mining to earn and maintain a premium valuation multiple as a reliable builder and operator of mines as the market’s confidence in their ability to deliver on time and budget should reflect positively on Oko West, particularly upon release of the Feasibility Study and build permits (H1/25).”
* IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T) with an “outperform” rating and $12 target (Street-high), up from $11. Average: $8.87
Mr. Parkin: “With the robust gold price environment and ongoing ramp-up of Cote, we expect IAMGOLD’s financial position to greatly improve over the coming quarters, with our ND/EBITDA estimates falling from a peak of 2.3 times in 4Q23 to negative 0.1 times in 1Q26. With the ramp-up at Cote well underway, financial deleveraging on the horizon and further upside within the portfolio, including Nelligan & Monster Lake as well as the Gosselin zone which is adjacent to Côté, we believe IAMGOLD is a likely takeout target if it does not re-rate higher, which we believe provides further support for the share price.”
Royalty Companies
* Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR-T) with an “outperform” rating and $33.50 target (unchanged). Average: $29.92.
Analyst Shane Nagle: “Osisko Gold Royalties maintains an attractive near-term growth outlook with three- and five-year growth CAGRs of 10 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively.Given the royalty sector is expected to generate strong FCF at current gold prices, a competitive deal environment is likely to contribute to consolidation within the industry. We view several companies in the sector motivated to acquire OR’s high-quality portfolio given its strong near-term growth pipeline, largely derived from politically stable jurisdictions, including: Canadian Malartic, Eagle, Island Gold, Mantos Blancos and the CSA mine.”
Developers
* Artemis Gold Inc. (ARTG-X) with an “outperform” rating and $20 target (unchanged). Average: $17.56.
Mr. DeMarco: “FCF inflection on deck (NBF est. first pour Oct. 2024) with Blackwater development led by an experienced COO, fully financed, on time and on budget, with potential development tailwinds from a mild winter in 2023/24. Attractive economics from LOM production of 339k oz/year over 22 years (DFS Sept. 2021) from a sizable 8.0 million oz reserve endowment and visibility for elevated F5Y production (500k oz/year) upon accelerating Phase 2. Tier 1 jurisdiction benefits accentuated as headwinds continue to increase in other jurisdictions and for non-permitted projects universally. Additionally, we flag high insider ownership (38 per cent) and M&A appeal as a single-asset producer.”
Mr. Parkin removed OceanaGold Corp. (OGC-T) with an “outperform” recommendation and $5.50 target, down from $6 (versus $5.30 average), from the top picks list.
“We removed OceanaGold as a Top Pick given the expected FCF inflection point (expected with Q3 results) appears to be well priced into the shares,” he said. “We are maintaining our OP rating as we continue to believe OceanaGold is well-positioned to generate even stronger FCF in 2025 vs 2024, which should help the shares to re-rate higher over the coming quarters. OceanaGold has performed very well YTD, up 68 per cent vs the S&P/TSX Global Gold Index up about 47 per cent.”
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Seeing Topaz Energy Corp.’s (TPZ-T) $278.2-million deal with Tourmaline Oil Corp. for a gross overriding royalty interest in recently acquired lands in Alberta and B.C. as “fair market value for a highly attractive asset,” Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch sees the move “positively to the extent that it harmonizes royalty exposure to a premier producer on accretive terms while bolstering long-term visibility through future potential development of Groundbirch.:
“Through the transaction, TPZ adds a GORR on 3.0 million gross acres, thereby expanding corporate royalty acreage by 50 per cent, including a 38-per-cent increase in its Montney position which is expected to deliver 2,450–2,650 boe/d [barrels of oil equivalent per day] (85-per-cent natural gas) of incremental production,” he said. “Moreover, 50 per cent of the acquired rights are on undeveloped lands, offering significant future upside. The additional royalty acreage accounts for a significant portion of TOU’s five-year development plan, with more than 2,200 gross future drilling locations identified, 850 of which are located close to its existing Montney assets. Notably, TPZ also picks up a GORR at Groundbirch.”
Mr. MacCulloch was one of several equity analysts to resume coverage of Calgary-based Topaz following the close of the deal and subsequent equity financing. He sees the move as accretive to cash flow per share while “providing significant future upside.”
“Despite primarily funding the acquisition with equity, the transaction was notionally accretive to our 2025 CFPS estimate, which increased by 2 per cent following the transaction,” he said. “For context, the $278-million purchase price translates into a 10.5 times cash flow multiple, which is accretive vs the stock’s previous strip trading multiple of 12.5 times prior to the acquisition, albeit on the slightly more expensive side relative to recent Canadian royalty transactions, reflecting the relatively early-stage development of the northeast BC Montney assets. We view future development of Groundbirch as one of the key value drivers of the transaction for TPZ, which should support the company’s long-term growth visibility.”
Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Topaz shares, he bumped his target to $31 from $30. The average is $30.58.
Others making changes include:
* National Bank’s Dan Payne to $33.50 from $32.50 with a “outperform” rating.
“Bottom line, on an absolute or relative value basis, we continue to hold a positive bias towards the quality & tangibility of its portfolio relative to the more indiscernible interests elsewhere within the peers,” said Mr. Payne.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mike Mueller to $31 from $29.50 with a “buy” rating.
“With the acquisition and enhanced asset base capable of delivering growth alongside a strong partner in TOU, we continue to view the name as a core holding for investors seeking exposure to the sector,” he said.
* TD Cowen’s Aaron Bilkoski to $30 from $28 with a “buy” rating.
“The most recent acquisition with Tourmaline (announced Oct 1), provides Topaz with exposure to Tourmaline’s entire growth trajectory (fills the holes created through TOU’s recent M&A),” he said. “We estimate this transaction was accretive to key metrics while having minimal impact to financial leverage.”
* Scotia’s Cameron Bean to $35 from $34 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“The market liked the deal (TPZ is up 8 per cent vs. the offering price and 4 per cent vs. the pre-deal close) and we agree,” said Mr. Bean. “The acquisition enhances TPZ’s alignment with the top natural gas producer in Canada, adds considerable resource and significant organic growth (including longer-term upside from exploration and delineation projects), and comes at accretive metrics. We continue to see TPZ as the top royalty/income stream name (akin to a top quality ETF on the basin).”
* CIBC’s Jamie Kubik to $31 from $30 with an “outperformer” rating.
* ATB Capital Markets’ Patrick O’Rourke to $31 from $30 with an “outperform” rating.
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At current valuation levels, RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds continue to see “attractive entry points” for most stocks in his Canadian diversified media coverage universe “provided the gradual improvements in advertising and content cycles continue and an economic hard landing is avoide,d.”
In a third-quarter earnings preview report released Wednesday titled Moving in the Right Direction But Still Navigating Headwinds, he said a “soft landing would provide a ‘constructive enough’ backdrop.”
‘Notable sector outperformers relative to the strong 21-per-cent total return performance for the S&P/ TSX Composite year-to-date are VerticalScope (up 65 per cent ), Transcontinental (up 32 per cent) and Cineplex (up 24 per cent),” said Mr. McReynolds. “Following a relatively underwhelming 2022 and 2023 for most stocks in our diversified media coverage, we believe improving sector performance should prove sustainable provided an economic hard landing is avoided in North America. Valuation-wise, we fully acknowledge the negative impact that longstanding structural headwinds have had and will continue to have on many segments of the Canadian media sector. While most valuations have moved off cyclical lows year-to-date in 2024, we believe current valuation levels continue to provide attractive entry points for most stocks in a soft landing scenario, setting the stage for further multiple expansion and share price appreciation should the recoveries in the advertising environment and content cycle pick up speed in 2025.”
The analyst named three “best ideas” heading into earnings season:
* VerticalScope Holdings Inc. (FORA-T) with an “outperform” rating and $15 target. The average is $13.67.
* Cineplex Inc. (CGX-T) with an “outperform” rating and $13 target. Average: $13.
* Transcontinental Inc. (TCL.A-T) with an “outperform” rating and $22 target. Average: $20.67.
Mr. McReynolds also made three target changes:
* Corus Entertainment Inc. (CJR.B-T, “sector perform”) to 20 cents from 30 cents. Average: 13 cents.
* Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T, “outperform”) to $46 from $47. Average: $42.
* Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N/TRI-T, “sector perform”) to US$171 from US$168. Average: US$166.09.
“For the media technology names in our coverage (Thomson Reuters, VerticalScope, Enthusiast Gaming, illumin), we believe the focus this quarter will be the extent to which year-over-year revenue growth improves sequentially in Q3/24, which would be consistent with our forecasts and a positive but modest overall growth environment,” said Mr. McReynolds. “For the content and distribution names in our coverage (Corus, Stingray, Boat Rocker, WildBrain, Cineplex), revenue mixes most resemble the traditional mass media segments of broadcasting, publishing, advertising, printing and content production. We view 2024 as largely a transition and/or recovery year for content and distribution post-U.S. guild strikes in 2023 with an improved set-up heading into 2025 with advertising and content environments expected to fully normalize. For the other media and discretionary names in our coverage (Transcontinental, Spin Master), the extent to which the North American economy performs in 2024 and 2025 will be the major earnings determinant with printing (in the case of Transcontinental) and toy sales (in the case of Spin Master) sensitive to the strength of the economy and overall consumer spending.”
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In other analyst actions:
* JP Morgan’s Jeremy Tonet downgraded AltaGas Ltd. (ALA-T) to “neutral” from “overweight” with a $37 target, rising from $36.
* Stifel’s Martin Landry initiated coverage of Lassonde Industries Inc. (LAS.A-T) with a “buy” rating and $220 target, exceeding the $197.25 average.
“Shares of Lassonde trade at 8 times forward earnings, which we view as very depressed levels and offering investors an appealing entry point,” he said. “In our view, as the company continues its earnings recovery with EPS on the way to exceed $20, investors will get more comfortable that the historical earnings volatility is behind and that current earnings can form a solid base from which to grow.”
* Mr. Landry initiated coverage of Leon’s Furniture Ltd. (LNF-T) with a “hold” rating and $30 target. The average is $35.63.
“The company appears to have lost market share since 2017, with system sales growing at a 2.0-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth] vs an industry CAGR of 2.5 per cent,” he said. “Hence, to stimulate its shares, in May 2023, LNF announced its intention to create a REIT to unlock the value of its real estate portfolio. This announcement has propelled LNF’s shares to an all-time high, significantly outperforming the TSX Composite Index year-to-date.”
* Scotia’s Mario Saric bumped his Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T) target to $22 from $21 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average is $20.
* Desjardins Securities’ Gary Ho raised his dentalcorp Holdings Ltd. (DNTL-T) target to $11.75 from $11 with a “buy” rating. The average is $11.
“DNTL reports pre-market on November 12. We expect another clean quarter, with DNTL delivering results that meet 3Q guidance provided previously, which should be viewed positively. CDCP adoption has again improved and we anticipate DNTL achieving its $20-million-plus acquired EBITDA target in 2024 (funded through internal FCF) while driving leverage lower. We continue to favour this story as management steadily executes,” he said.
* Mr. Ho cut his goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) target to $210 from $215, below the $224.14 average, with a “buy” rating.
“GSY reports on November 7 after market. We lowered our estimates, driven by reduced revenue yield (preliminary results suggest yield is below previous guidance of 34‒35 per cent) and increased provisions given the uncertain macro outlook; however, we anticipate stable/slightly improved NCO and delinquencies as prior credit enhancements take effect. Management may also provide an update on the CEO transition,” he said.
* RBC’s Sabahat Khan cut his Boyd Group Services Inc. (BYD-T) target to $280 from $306 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $285.12.
“We are revising our estimates for H2 2024/full-year 2025 and also provide some thoughts on questions we have been fielding from investors in recent weeks. Overall, we believe that Boyd remains well positioned to double its business by 2025 vs. a 2019 base and that the current industry headwinds will prove to be short-term in nature (we are expecting year-over-year growth in 2025, albeit with steady improvement through the year),” said Mr. Khan.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Matthew Lee raised his targets for Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T, “hold”) to $3.10 from $2.50, Cargojet Inc. (CJT-T, “buy”) to $160 from $156 and Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T, “buy”) to $70 from $68. The averages are $3.34, $162.45 and $65.83, respectively.
* Ahead of its Nov. 7 quarterly release, TD Cowen’s Tim James trimmed his Exchange Income Corp. (EIF-T) target to $67 from $69 with a “buy” rating. The average is $65.61.
“We believe an in-line quarter that provides evidence of accelerating organic growth in 2025 based on Window Solutions, three medevac contracts, Air Canada regional flying and international surveillance opportunities should be positive for the share price over the coming months,” Mr. James said.
* In response to Dye & Durham Ltd. (DND-T) putting itself up for sale, BMO’s Thanos Moschopoulos raised his target for its shares to $23 from $18 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $22.
“We had previously valued DND on an assumption that the company would remain independent,” he said. “Our target price now considers, on a probability-weighted basis, the potential of a takeout.”
“We believe a takeout price for DND, should a formal offer materialize, could be in the range of $25-30/share.”
* Desjardins Securities’ Chris Li cut his Parkland Corp. (PKI-T) target to $44 from $46 with a “buy” rating. The average is $50.54.
“Ahead of 3Q results on October 30, we have lowered our estimates to reflect weak refining margins and ongoing macro pressures weighing on demand. We believe PKI’s near-trough valuation (6.3 times NTM [next 12-month] EBITDA) largely reflects these challenges. While we expect the stock to remain range-bound in the near term, we believe there are several catalysts including macro improvement driving meaningful EBITDA growth next year, resolution of the Simpson dispute and leverage reduction (accelerated share buyback or M&A),” said Mr. Li.
* National Bank’s Travis Wood raised his PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK-T) target to $37 from $33 with a “sector perform” rating. The average is $30.20.