Warren Buffett hasn't fared too badly since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway are up more than the S&P 500 during the higher-rate environment.
However, Buffett is probably hoping for lower rates as many investors are. Some of the stocks in his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio could especially benefit from a positive move by the Federal Reserve. Here are two Buffett stocks, in particular, that could soar if the Fed cuts interest rates in September.
Two Buffett birds of a feather
Buffett initiated positions in three housing stocks in the second quarter of 2022. His biggest stake, by far, was in D.R. Horton. He subsequently sold all of Berkshire's shares in the giant homebuilder. However, he held onto the other two stocks.
Today, Berkshire owns roughly $25.6 million of Lennar(NYSE: LEN) shares. It also owns $100 million of NVR(NYSE: NVR) stock. Granted, these are small positions for Berkshire. But both Lennar and NVR certainly still qualify as Buffett stocks.
Lennar is the larger of the two companies with a market cap of over $49 billion. It's been in business for 70 years. The homebuilder has operations in 22 states.
NVR's market cap is around $28 billion. The Virginia-based company operates in 16 states, building and selling homes under three brands: Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes. In addition, NVR has subsidiaries that offer mortgage and settlement services to homebuyers.
Why rate cuts should boost Lennar and NVR
There's a simple reason why interest rate cuts should boost Lennar and NVR. Lower interest rates usually lead to lower mortgage rates. And lower mortgage rates fuel increased buying of new homes.
Lennar executive chairman and co-CEO Stuart Miller summed it up well in his company's second-quarter earnings call. Miller said, "[A]s interest rates subside and normalize and if the Fed is actually going to begin to cut rates, we believe a pent-up demand will be activated, and we will be well prepared."
Miller's comments apply to NVR as well. The "pent-up demand" for new homes he referred to will help all homebuilders.
It appears that the Federal Reserve will soon deliver on those highly anticipated rate cuts. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week, "My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%." This statement is huge, considering that the rate hikes that began in early 2022 were made to bring soaring inflation rates down. Powell proclaimed, "The time has come for policy to adjust."
What if the Fed doesn't cut rates in September?
However, the Federal Reserve chairman didn't fully commit to cutting interest rates in September. He stated, "[T]he timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
So what will happen with Lennar and NVR if the Fed doesn't cut rates in September? I think the two stocks will still move higher.
The November presidential election could provide a catalyst for both stocks. Democratic nominee Kamala Harris wants to jump-start the construction of 3 million new homes by 2028. Her proposals include giving financial assistance to first-time home buyers and tax incentives to builders who sell houses to first-time home buyers.
More importantly, the U.S. has a chronic housing shortage. More new homes are needed. Lennar and NVR will continue to grow regardless of what the Fed does or what happens in the election.
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Keith Speights has positions in Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway, Lennar, and NVR. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
