Many electric vehicle (EV) stocks soared during the buying frenzy in growth and meme stocks in 2021. But in 2022 and 2023, many of those stocks withered as their growth cooled off and rising rates popped their bubbly valuations. The soft Chinese economy and an EV pricing war exacerbated that pressure.
But with interest rates set to decline, some of those beaten-down EV stocks are starting to look like undervalued growth plays. Let's examine three of those stocks -- Nio (NYSE: NIO), Li Auto(NASDAQ: LI), and Joby Aviation(NYSE: JOBY) -- and see why they're worth nibbling on in November.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Nio
Nio is a Chinese EV maker that produces electric sedans and SUVs. It differentiates itself from its competitors with batteries that can be quickly swapped out at its swapping stations as a faster alternative to traditional chargers.
Nio delivered its first vehicles in 2018. From 2019 to 2023, its annual deliveries jumped nearly eightfold from 20,565 to 160,038 vehicles. Its annual revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63%. However, its growth decelerated in 2022 and 2023 as it grappled with supply chain constraints, weather-related disruptions, macro challenges in China, and the persistent pricing war across the EV market.
That slowdown spooked the bulls, but Nio's deliveries grew 36% year over year in the first nine months of 2024 -- compared to its 33% year-over-year growth in the first nine months of 2023. Its vehicle margins also stabilized as it grew its market share, sold a higher mix of premium vehicles, and rolled out its cheaper Onvo smart vehicles in China. It's also expanding into Europe, but those plans could be throttled by the new tariffs on Chinese EVs.
But despite that pressure, analysts expect Nio's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2023 and 2026. It isn't profitable yet, but its stock looks undervalued at less than 1 times next year's sales. It could eventually command a much higher valuation as it overcomes its near-term challenges.
2. Li Auto
Li Auto is one of China's leading producers of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). It sells four models of plug-in hybrid SUVs (the L6, L7, L8, and L9), and it launched its first fully battery-powered electric minivan, the Li Mega, earlier this year.
Li started delivering its first vehicles at the end of 2019. From 2020 to 2023, its annual deliveries soared more than 11 times, from 32,624 to 376,030 vehicles. From 2020 to 2023, its revenue rose at a CAGR or 136%. It also turned profitable for the first time in 2023.
Li's profits grew even as it built a massive network of supercharging stations across China. At the end of its latest quarter, it was operating 894 supercharging stations with 4,286 charging stalls. It also operated 479 retail stores across 145 cities.
Li faces some near-term headwinds. The pricing war in the EV market is squeezing its vehicle margins, while the escalating trade tensions and new tariffs forced it to postpone its first overseas expansion into the U.S., the Middle East, and other overseas markets.
But from 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Li's revenue to rise at a CAGR of 25% as its net income grows at a CAGR of 15%. Those are stellar growth rates for a stock that trades at just 17 times forward earnings and less than 1 times next year's sales. Like Nio, Li could attract a much higher valuation if the EV pricing war cools off, China's economy stabilizes, and economies of scale continue to dilute its operating expenses.
3. Joby Aviation
Joby Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Its first commercial eVTOL aircraft, the S4, carries one pilot and four passengers, travels up to 100 miles on a single charge, and has a maximum speed of 200 mph. It's mainly designed as a cheaper, faster, quieter, and greener alternative to traditional helicopters. It's also easier to land in urban areas, which makes it a good fit for local air taxi services.
Joby currently holds a $131 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) to deliver up to nine eVTOL aircraft to the U.S. Air Force. It delivered its first aircraft to Edwards AFB last year, and it plans to deliver its next two aircraft to MacDill AFB in 2025. It's also developing a hydrogen-powered eVTOL aircraft, which could potentially achieve five times the range of its first-generation battery-powered counterparts.
Joby is still a highly speculative stock. Analysts expect it to generate just $395,000 in revenue this year as it racks up a net loss of $467 million. But by 2026, they expect it to generate $104 million in revenue, with a net loss of $532 million.
Based on those expectations and its enterprise value of $3.56 billion, Joby's stock isn't terribly expensive, at 7 times its projected sales for 2026. Toyota and Delta Air Lines are still heavily invested in Joby's future, so its stock could soar a lot higher as more companies replace their helicopters with its eVTOL aircraft.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
