Shares of Novavax(NASDAQ: NVAX) are up 12% as of midday Friday following the release of the drugmaker's first-quarter results. It's not the report, however, driving the bulk of today's oversize gain -- it's the announcement made in conjunction with it.
The company is partnering with fellow pharmaceutical company Sanofi(NASDAQ: SNY) to market Novavax's COVID vaccine. The deal also opens the door to the development of a flu vaccine based on Novavax's underlying science used to create its coronavirus jab.
Novavax is suddenly a new company
For the quarter ending in March, Novavax had $94 million in revenue and a loss of $1.05 per share. These numbers are an improvement on the year-ago loss of $3.41 per share, on $81 million in sales.
The top line fell short of estimates of $101 million, and the bottom line was barely better than the expected per-share loss of $1.06. It's a much-needed glimmer of hope from a company that remained in the red during the worst of the pandemic despite being one of the few companies that sold an approved COVID vaccine.
These results, however, took a back seat to news of the partnership with Sanofi. Besides the rights to sell Novavax's existing COVID vaccine, Sanofi will also give Novavax royalties on any influenza vaccines it develops using the same underlying science. As part of the deal, Sanofi is also purchasing an equity stake in Novavax worth $500 million.
Novavax believes that this agreement sets the stage for a "potential multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity." Prior to today, there was doubt in some corners of the market that the company could ever become viable.
Maybe not the right stock, and definitely not the right time
It's an exciting development, but this is seemingly a case of the market responding too aggressively to a single headline without knowing what the news might mean for the company's top and bottom lines.
Yes, Novavax probably will eventually see billions of dollars in revenue from this partnership. Exactly when and how much isn't clear, though. There's also no guarantee it will drag the company out of the red and into the black. And if nothing else, a single-day triple-digit gain from any stock is a tough act to follow. Don't be surprised to see profit-taking pressure immediately from here.
In other words, there's no good risk-adjusted reason for most investors to dive in at this point. Novavax is now one for the speculators, if that.
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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
