The life expectancy of Canadians has been increasing for decades, but some aspects of this phenomenon are not well-known. Consider the following.
1. We usually hear about life expectancy from birth, but life expectancy from age 65 is much more relevant to retirees – for instance, when deciding when to start taking their CPP pensions. At present, life expectancy from age 65 is four years longer than if it is measured from birth.
2. For the years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy from 65 was 85.8, as seen on the above chart. This is six years more than it was 60 years ago.
3. The biggest 10-year gain in life expectancy happened between 1962 and 1972, while the smallest gain occurred between 2012 and 2022. The slowdown suggests that the low-hanging fruit, such as improvements owing to medical advances, had already been picked by 2012.
4. As an aside, life expectancy for higher-income Canadians and public servants is a few years longer than it is for the overall population, which is shown here.
5. The dip in the years 2020 to 2022 is owing to COVID-19, and will likely prove to be a one-time aberration.
6. Given the recent slowdown in gains, average life expectancy might not ever reach 100. As for anyone living beyond 125, that might not ever happen, either. The improvement we have seen thus far in life expectancy is all because of reduced death rates at earlier ages, mainly before 90, and not because of any change in the maximum age.
7. The chart does not address the differences between male and female mortality; this will be examined in a future chart.
Frederick Vettese is former chief actuary of Morneau Shepell and author of the PERC retirement calculator (perc-pro.ca)