Israeli election primer: The many paths to forming a government

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The latest public-opinion surveys show Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party falling well behind the opposition Zionist Union (ZU) led by Isaac Herzog.

But just because Mr. Herzog may be able to command the largest number of seats in Israel's Knesset doesn't mean he automatically will be the country's next prime minister. To form a majority in the 120-seat parliament requires 61 seats and no party has ever been elected with that many. The ZU will be lucky if it gets 26.

In the days immediately following Tuesday's vote, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin, a long-time member of the Likud, will consult with leaders of all the parties that garner seats in the Knesset (probably 10 or 11 altogether) to hear their recommendations on which political leader should form a government – either Mr. Herzog or Mr. Netanyahu. It is the President who will determine which of the two men gets the first opportunity to cobble together a coalition.

While the nod usually goes to the party chief with the most seats, it is not always the case. If President Rivlin believes that the other leader has greater support from the other parties, he may beckon the second-place finisher to try to form a government.

This would appear to be the only hope for Mr. Netanyahu to remain in office. Indeed, in 2009, his Likud party came second to a party led by Tzipi Livni, who was unable to fashion a majority, and it fell to Mr. Netanyahu to create one.

(In this election, Ms. Livni is the junior partner with Mr. Herzog at the helm of the Zionist Union. As such, she is to take Mr. Herzog's place as prime minister for the third and fourth years of the term, should they be able to form a government that lasts that long.)

Mr. Netanyahu already has enjoyed three terms in office – a total of 3,300 days, second only to Israel's first prime minister, David Ben Gurion. He may not have another chance to extend his time as the knives already are out in the Likud back rooms.

What the numbers say

Israeli law prohibits the publication of public-opinion surveys in the 96 hours prior to an election.

As of Friday morning, the country's many surveys done for newspapers and television channels all agreed that Mr. Herzog's ZU had opened up a lead of between two and four seats over Mr. Netanyahu's Likud.

A number of public-opinion surveys last week also indicated that more people consider Mr. Netanyahu to be better qualified as prime minister than think Mr. Herzog would make a superior prime minister.

Surveys also showed that more than 70 per cent of people believe Israel needs a change of direction. Mr. Herzog is poised as the person to change that direction.

Building a coalition

Building a coalition is Middle East bargaining at its best … and worst.

Getting the support of a majority of the 120 new members of the Knesset can take a great deal of negotiating with each party, no matter how small, making demands of the candidate for prime minister. Some will demand a certain number of ministers in the coalition cabinet and as well as demands for which portfolios they be given. Requests made by some parties often will conflict with those made by other parties. It's up to the leader of a future government to sort it all out. It helps when a leader has a number of options for putting together a majority or when the leading party is close to a majority itself. Neither candidate for prime minister in this election has that luxury.

The leader first tasked with forming a coalition government has up to 42 days to assemble it. Should that leader fail, a second leader is asked to try; he or she has up to 28 days to win the support of 61 members of the Knesset. If no majority can be established, the Knesset is dispersed and new elections held.

The natural allies

Some parties fall into place neatly in right or left camps.

The parties on the right – Likud; Jewish Home; Yisrael Beitenu; Yahad – all place security issues first and strongly support extensive Israeli settlement of the West Bank at the expense of a Palestinian state. None of them is likely to join a coalition dominated by the left.

The parties on the left– Zionist Union; Yesh Atid; Meretz – all consider economic issues of greater priority and view the emphasis on settlements to be counter to Israel's security and economic interests. The ZU and Meretz are unlikely ever to join a coalition dominated by the right. Yesh Atid is unlikely to join another coalition led by Mr. Netanyahu.

Up for grabs

Other parties need a little persuading.

Kulanu is a new party, led by former Likud communications minister Moshe Kahlon. It puts the greatest emphasis on economic reforms and competition, and would fit in with either right or left camps. It is said that Mr. Kahlon will join whichever coalition offers him the job of finance minister. Mr. Herzog has already announced that if he forms a government, a member of his own party list, economist Manuel Trajtenberg, will be named finance minister.

Shas is a Haredi or ultra-Orthodox party composed almost entirely of Sephardic (West Asian and North African) Jews. Led once again by Arye Deri, who held cabinet posts in both Likud- and Labour-led governments in the past, Shas wants to be with the winning coalition. The party would fit in with either a prime minister Netanyahu or a prime minister Herzog, and Mr. Deri recently said he wouldn't absolutely rule out the possibility of sitting in a government that included the zealously secular party Yesh Atid.

United Torah Judaism is a Haredi or ultra-Orthodox bloc composed almost entirely of Ashkenazi (East European) Jews who lament their loss of influence from being left out of the last government. The bloc's leaders could side with whichever coalition offers them power. UTJ seeks economic assistance for its communities and for their religious schools, and would like to reverse the initiative approved by the Netanyahu government to limit the number of young religious men exempted from military service. It is not averse to sitting in government with Labour leader Herzog, whose grandfather was Israel's first chief (Ashkenazi) rabbi. It would, however, be hard for it to be part of a government that included Yesh Atid, the party that introduced increased religious military conscription.

The wild card

One electoral bloc party could make all the difference.

The Joint List, a new largely Arab bloc, is not so easy to classify. While it would never sit in government with the right that it views as anti-Arab, its politicians also reject the idea of governing with the left. This amalgam of Communists (including many Jews), nationalists and Islamists are anti-Zionist and cannot, the leaders say, side even with Zionists of the left.

However, the majority of its supporters and of the overall 21 per cent of the electorate who are Arab Israelis say they want members of this bloc to take seats at the cabinet table in order to improve the Arab community's standard of living.

For his part, Mr. Herzog, should he be given the opportunity to form a coalition, may not want to have this anti-Zionist group in the government. Indeed, no Arab Israeli party has been part of a coalition since Yitzhak Rabin's first mandate almost 40 years ago. And Mr. Herzog, already viewed by many as soft on Palestinians, may want to avoid any increase in that perception.

But if the ZU leader should need them as a means to form a majority, or a means to moderate others' excessive demands, he might just lift that decades-long embargo.