An Israeli soldier casts his ballot for the parliamentary election behind a mobile voting booth at an army base on Mount Gerizim, near the West Bank City of Nablus March 17, 2015. Millions of Israelis voted on Tuesday in a tightly fought election, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing an uphill battle to defeat a strong campaign by the centre-left opposition to deny him a fourth term in office.Amir Cohen
More than four million Israelis are voting today in a highly contentious election to determine the next national government. Legally, the most recent public opinion surveys are now four days old and things could have changed at the last minute.
Going into the weekend, the lead was held by the Zionist Union, a voting bloc comprised of Isaac Herzog's Labour Party and the smaller Hatnuah party of former foreign minister Tzipi Livni. Polls showed this bloc garnering 24 to 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. But the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was not far behind, with polls projecting this bloc would receive 20 to 22 seats.
A joint list of mostly Arab parties, a centrist party led by the former Finance Minister Yair Lapid and a radical right-wing party called Jewish Home were vying for third place, well behind the two leaders.
As many as six other parties, including three with ultra-Orthodox voters, were expected to cross the electoral threshold of 3.25 per cent of the vote and win at least four seats in the parliament under the country's proportional representation system of voting.
Polls close at 4 p.m. (ET) and with the outcome too close to call, here's what to watch for in the final few hours of balloting and in the early exit polls to follow:
1. OVERALL TURNOUT
Three small parties have a lot riding on a low voter turnout (below 70 per cent). If more people than that cast ballots, then the left-wing Meretz party, the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party of Avigdor Lieberman and the new radical-right, radical-religious Yahad party could have trouble getting enough votes to cross the electoral threshold.
Without Meretz, Mr. Herzog's Zionist Union bloc will be missing a key ally. Without Yisrael Beitenu or Yahad, Mr. Netanyahu's Likud party will be hard pressed to form a coalition government in the coming days.
2. THE ARAB VOTE
The Joint List of mostly Arab parties could well see a dramatic increase in votes from the Arab sector. (Only 57 per cent of Arab Israeli citizens voted last time.) The rise in Arab votes could spell doom for Meretz that normally counts on Arab as well as Jewish Israeli supporters. It also could adversely affect the Zionist Union, that also polls well in the Arab sector.
A high turnout could, however, deliver as many as 15 seats to this new, anti-Zionist voting bloc, giving the Arab community considerable clout in the days ahead – either in building a coalition government or in opposition.
3. A SURPRISE
Every Israeli election, it seems, includes some unexpected development. (The last time, it was the surge of votes for Mr. Lapid's Yesh Atid party, landing the centrist bloc in second place and guaranteeing it seats in Mr. Netanyahu's cabinet.)
This time, it could be a rush of votes for the new Kulanu party of former Likud minister Moshe Kahlon, making his 10 seats, or more, crucial for either Mr. Herzog or Mr. Netanyahu if they hope to fashion a coalition fit to govern.