Jordanian pilot Moaz Kasasbeh, shown in picture, belongs to an influential family. His mother, above, and father have publcily demanded for King Abdullah to do ‘whatever the Islamic State wants’ to secure their son’srelease.Raad Adayleh/The Associated Press
In what may have been the most testing decision of his reign, King Abdullah II of Jordan agreed Wednesday to release from prison a convicted al-Qaeda terrorist. The arrangement, a result of secret negotiations conducted with the Islamic State movement that holds two prisoners of interest to Jordan, will be criticized by many of the country's allies who oppose negotiating with extremists
But for the Jordanian monarch, who turns 53 on Friday, he was left with little choice.
Islamic State is holding hostage a Japanese journalist, Kenji Goto, and threatened to execute him within 24 hours unless Jordan meets its demand announced last week – the release of Sajida Rishawi, a member of al-Qaeda in Iraq, convicted for her role in attacks on hotels in Amman in 2005 in which 60 people were killed.
Islamic State also holds a Jordanian pilot, captured Dec. 24 when his fighter jet crashed near Raqqa, Islamic State's so-called capital in northeastern Syria. The pilot, Lieutenant Moaz Kasasbeh, had been carrying out a bombing run against IS forces when his plane became disabled and he was forced to bail out.
King Abdullah has come under considerable domestic pressure to do whatever it takes to bring Lt. Kasasbeh home.
In a videotaped message late Tuesday, Mr. Goto described their predicament: "I only have 24 hours left to live, and the pilot has even less," he said. "Any more delays by the Jordanian government will mean they're responsible for the death of their pilot, which will then be followed by mine."
Japan, one of Jordan's biggest aid donors, had flown its deputy foreign minister to Amman to ask the King if he could comply with the request.
On Wednesday, Jordan announced that it would release Ms. Rishawi as requested by Islamic State, but it made her freedom conditional on Lt. Kasasbeh also being freed.
It was a gamble. Islamic State had not said it would release the young pilot. But if Jordan were to make a deal only for the Japanese journalist, there would be a public uproar. If it refused to negotiate, both men likely would die.
Joseph Nevo, a Jordan specialist at Haifa University in Israel, said that "in a country like Jordan, the King has to respond to his followers." Mr. Nevo noted that the family of the 26-year-old pilot hailed from an influential tribe in the Karak area and they had made their position clear. "They told the King: 'You sent our son into Syria; it's up to you to bring him back.'"
As for the price Jordan should pay, "Whatever the Islamic State wants, we should give them," said the pilot's father, Sasi Kasasbeh.
For its part, Japan would have been happier if Jordan had simply agreed to swap Ms. Rishawi for Mr. Goto as called for by Islamic State.
Jordan's monarch sits atop a volatile nation: There is jealousy and tension between native Jordanians, who make up less than half the population, and Palestinian refugees who are in the majority. The latter tend to support the increasingly active Muslim Brotherhood movement, while the natives rely on their tribal leaders to ensure their place in society. The entire country suffers from floods of refugees that have come from Palestine, Iraq and Syria; leaving Jordan short of water and badly in need of cash.
It makes for a nation dependent on the good graces of others such as the United States, Japan, Britain and Canada, as well as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. It's up to the King to make sure these benefactors are kept happy.
When it comes to negotiating a prisoner swap with extremists, the United States among others won't be happy. The State Department spokesperson said this week that prisoner swaps are "in the same category" as paying a ransom and the United States doesn't like it. Indeed, both the United States and Britain have refused to bargain with Islamic State, which has beheaded two U.S reporters, an American aid worker and two British aid workers.
Canada too has said it will not negotiate with terrorists.
But these countries have not objected strongly to Jordan's decision, Mr. Nevo noted. "I think they understand the predicament the King is in," he said, adding that they "don't think it is setting a dangerous precedent."
"In fact, I would say it would have been more dangerous for the King were he not to have negotiated with Islamic State," he said.
Tribes can make life difficult for King Abdullah, who already has his hands full dealing with the restive Palestinian population. He needs all the support he can get from the tribes.
When the United States first pulled together a group of six Arab states to join the battle against Islamic State in Syria, Jordan was an enthusiastic participant.
IS forces were threatening to cross the Jordanian border, more than 85 per cent of Jordanians said the group was a terrorist organization and few in Parliament objected to joining the coalition.
Lt. Kasasbeh's plight, however, has stimulated a new debate in Jordan about the country's role in the coalition.
For weeks there have been rallies calling on the King to win Lt. Kasasbeh's release; even a nationwide "We are all Moaz" campaign that Queen Rania joined.
Ominously, public anger rose this week when it appeared that the fate of the Japanese journalist being held hostage was taking precedence over Lt. Kasasbeh, and vigils outside the palace and the prime minister's office cropped up.
The young pilot's mother even spoke out about her son: "When he joined the air force, I expected him to defend Jordan, but not to go fight in another country," she said. "This is not our business being there."
King Abdullah may have another difficult decision to make soon.