Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech in Jerusalem on March 31, 2015.GALI TIBBON/The Associated Press
It's been a month since Israel's March 17 election and still no coalition government is in sight.
Leaders of right wing parties that were expected to jump at the chance to be part of a like-minded government are squabbling over who gets what portfolio; others are still disputing what policies the coalition will stand for.
No wonder a lot of people in Israel are betting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon ask opposition leader Isaac Herzog to join him in a centrist coalition. Don't hold your breath.
A recent leak from the Prime Minister's Likud party hinting that Mr. Netanyahu is considering the Herzog option is likely just a ploy to make right-wing leaders more amenable to the terms being offered.
If Mr. Netanyahu hasn't formed a government by next Tuesday – and there's no chance that he will – he must ask Israeli President Reuven Rivlin for two more weeks in which to complete coalition negotiations. Assuming his request is granted, those talks are subject to Parkinson's Law and will likely fill every last minute of the allotted time.
To ensure he gets the extra two weeks, Mr. Netanyahu hopes to have at least one party signed up to join him in a coalition. The most likely one to fall in line is the new Kulanu party led by Moshe Kahlon. The former minister of communications was fondly remembered by many Israelis for having drastically reduced their monthly cellphone charges and Kulanu captured 10 seats in last month's vote.
Mr. Kahlon's participation in the coalition isn't coming cheaply. He asked for and is getting the finance ministry for himself and, according to Israel Hayom, the daily newspaper that is closest to Mr. Netanyahu, The Kulanu party is likely also to gain control of the powerful building and planning committee that is responsible for housing projects.
With Mr. Kahlon's 10 seats, combined with the 30 seats of the Prime Minister's Likud party, Mr. Netanyahu will have the support of 40 of the 61 seats needed to form a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
But the next most senior members of Mr. Netanyahu's coalition are proving more elusive.
Naftali Bennett, the ambitious leader of the Jewish Home party that supports unlimited Israeli settlement in the mostly Palestinian West Bank, garnered eight seats in the election and is insisting on being given the prestigious post of Foreign Minister.
Not to be outdone, the current Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, the bellicose leader of the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party that took a disappointing six seats in the Knesset, demands he be allowed to keep his job.
Mr. Netanyahu indicated this week he may settle the dispute by keeping the Foreign Ministry for himself and offering the two men more minor cabinet posts.
In that event, Mr. Lieberman, who merged his party with Mr. Netanyahu's in the 2013 election and who once served as the Prime Minister's chief of staff, is likely to pull his party out of the coalition and sit with the opposition.
"If he is not offered the Foreign Ministry or something close to it [such as the Defence Ministry] the chance of Yisrael Beitenu joining the coalition in my opinion is close to zero," said Uzi Landau, a retiring senior member of Mr. Lieberman's party.
In an interview to be published Friday in the Jerusalem Post, Mr. Landau explained that Mr. Lieberman "has had so many jobs, he may decide not to be in the coalition this time. He won't join the government at [just] any price."
While the loss of Mr. Lieberman's six seats will weaken the coalition, Mr. Netanyahu should still be able to form a razor-thin majority with Mr. Bennett's eight seats and the 13 seats held between two Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties.
Arye Deri, the leader of one of those parties, Shas, has indicated that the parties and Mr. Netanyahu have not even begun to settle the matter of portfolios; they still are haggling over social and economic policies, which, Mr. Deri insists, come first.
Shas, along with United Torah Judaism, want increased financial and housing benefits for their constantly expanding and very poor religious constituencies. They also want the new government to roll back some of the measures taken by Mr. Netanyahu's last government to increase the number of young Orthodox men who fulfill the country's compulsory military service. The vast majority have traditionally avoided service by being enrolled in religious institutions.
Assuming Mr. Netanyahu pays the price, and then provides these two parties with suitable ministerial posts – Mr. Deri has apparently been offered the Transportation ministry – the Prime Minister will have a bare majority of 61 with which to operate.
Of course, he may have that Foreign Ministry post in his back pocket and still could use it to help lure Mr. Lieberman or even Mr. Herzog into his ranks.