Premier Danielle Smith has made a double-barrelled announcement to Albertans: Her government will spend billions of dollars to accelerate the building of new schools, and the province must take action owing to the federal Liberal government’s immigration policies.
But Tuesday’s prime time address to the province begs two questions: Where will the actual money come from, and what’s the political reason the Premier is making this announcement now?
Beginning in next year’s budget, her government will allocate $8.6-billion to create spaces for an influx of new Alberta students. This money will allow the government to announce up to 30 new schools and eight modernization projects or replacement schools every year, for three years. But it will take a total of seven years for all the money to actually roll out, eventually creating 200,000 new spots for students.
In this year’s provincial budget for 2024-2025, the government said it will spend $2.1-billion over three years to build and modernize schools.
The Premier said provincial surpluses give her government the room to act: “That strong financial position gives us the flexibility we need to make a large one-time capital investment into our K-to-12 school system to manage this massive growth without having to go into deficit.”
The details of the building plan are fuzzy – including how much it will actually improve the situation from now – and the Premier’s characterization of the province’s finances is rosy. Oil prices are volatile. Finance Minister Nate Horner said just a few weeks ago that, while the province has an “accounting surplus” of $2.9-billion, that money is tied up. In the meantime, the province will need to take on $641-million in short-term borrowing.
“We must be more measured and responsible in making budgetary decisions,” he told reporters in August. “We can’t spend beyond our means.”
Meanwhile, fiscal hawks at the Fraser Institute warn that Alberta is in danger of slipping in a deficit in the next fiscal year, even without full implementation of the personal tax cut that Ms. Smith has long promised, that she says is coming in the next budget.
But there is no doubt that there is a need to do something on infrastructure – and the Alberta government has long been comfortable with taking on debt for capital spending. Current annual growth of about 200,000 people per year – with a population nearing five million – means about 33,000 new students per year, according to the Premier. That creates demand for roughly 35 new schools each year.
Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides said the province will speed the building of schools by allowing multiple steps of a project to be approved in the construction process without having to wait for the next budget cycle.
But all of this is a part of Ms. Smith’s change in tone – you could say a reversal – on her long held view that all Alberta population growth is good (and to give proper background, the same view held by every Alberta premier in memory).
With Alberta population growth now likely to hit 4.6 per cent this year, the strain on schools and medical services, increasing traffic, and the sight of once-affordable houses being snapped up by people fleeing the high, high real estate prices of British Columbia and Ontario has finally trickled down to the Premier’s office.
Last week, for instance, Ms. Smith shared her concerns regarding federal plans for asylum seekers, with a post on X where she said the province will always welcome newcomers “who possess our shared values.”
The Premier gave some clarity as to what that meant on Tuesday, saying it means “welcoming those who believe in working hard, protecting our freedoms, contributing to society, following the rule of law” and “a deep respect for other cultures and faiths different from their own.”
She said people have long flocked to Alberta owing to job opportunities, as well as cost of living and income tax advantages. Previous immigration levels aligned with Canada’s economic needs and was in sync with the country’s ability to build enough houses and infrastructure to match that growth, she said.
“However, the Trudeau government’s unrestrained open border policies permitting well over a million newcomers each year into Canada is causing significant challenges and has broken this delicate balance.”
It’s no secret that Ms. Smith faces a leadership review in November and so she is keen to show action – especially and always battling the feds – before United Conservative Party members evaluate her performance.
But here’s the part of the double-barrelled message that Ms. Smith hopes will stick: Canada’s population growth in the country has surged, mostly owing to rapid growth in programs for students and temporarily workers that Ottawa is now being forced to reel back. She’s not wrong that there’s plenty to criticize in the current state of immigration policy from the federal Liberals.