Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam convention center for the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, on Sept. 9, 2023.POOL/The Associated Press
Vincent Rigby is the Slater Family Professor of Practice at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University and a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Aftab Ahmed is a public policy columnist and recently graduated with a Master of Public Policy from the Max Bell School.
The recent meeting between Prime Ministers Justin Trudeau and Narendra Modi on the margins of the G7 Summit in Italy may be a sign that the frosty relationship between Canada and India is finally beginning to thaw. The two countries have been at serious odds since last September when Mr. Trudeau publicly alleged that India was complicit in the June, 2023, murder of a Canadian-Sikh separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Surrey, B.C.
Mr. Trudeau suggested that an “opportunity for [Canada] to engage” with India has re-emerged with the conclusion of the Indian election. He cited the strong economic and social ties between the two countries, and no doubt had in mind the pivotal position India holds in Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy: as a bulwark against an ascendant China and an interlocutor with the Global South.
Contrary to most predictions, Mr. Modi has emerged from India’s election severely chastened, having failed to secure an outright majority for his party, the BJP. Mr. Modi’s strong reaction to Mr. Trudeau’s allegations last fall may have been partly aimed at a domestic audience in the lead-up to the election. With the vote now past, such nationalistic rhetoric may soften. While India’s more assertive posture on the world stage will undoubtedly continue, Mr. Modi may be prepared to turn the page on the recent tiff with Canada. The mere fact of the G7 conversation with Mr. Trudeau is encouraging.
But let’s not assume too much. The Canada-India relationship has been strained since the Air India bombing of 1985 and has only deteriorated under Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Modi. Numerous incidents in recent years – Mr. Trudeau’s ill-fated visit to India in 2018, his controversial comments over Indian agrarian protests in 2020, and the finger-pointing at New Delhi by the Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference – should not mask the core issue in the relationship: India’s frustration with Canada’s perceived reluctance to address Sikh extremism at home. Differing conceptions of terrorism and freedom of expression have dominated the bilateral conversation, and India’s patience may finally have been exhausted by the Nijjar case. If so, Canada cannot stand idly by while a foreign power orchestrates the murder of a Canadian citizen on its territory.
Given these difficult and long-standing circumstances, how do Ottawa and New Delhi put relations back on an even keel? How do they protect their respective national interests and sense of pride, while making an important strategic relationship work?
First, they must continue to lower the rhetorical temperature and practice quiet diplomacy to the greatest extent possible. Further public name-calling serves no purpose beyond scoring domestic political points. Small practical steps would also help. India has already lifted its freeze on Canadian visas. Allowing previously expelled Canadian diplomats to return to India would be another way of building trust. Enhanced diplomacy involving non-government entities, including in the fields of cybersecurity and the digital economy, is also worth pursuing.
Second, the two countries should restart trade talks, even if at a slow pace initially. Negotiations, which had been under way for years, were suspended over the Nijjar killing. But both countries understand the immense economic benefits at stake, whether in the clean energy, agriculture, mining, oil and gas or transportation sectors. Putting these discussions back on track would serve as a symbol of renewed co-operation and confidence.
Finally, both countries should leverage their relationship with the United States. Washington has been experiencing its own challenges with New Delhi after uncovering a plot involving the Indian government to murder a Canadian-American Sikh. India, confronted with evidence revealed in an unsealed U.S. indictment, investigated and ultimately claimed that rogue elements within its intelligence agency played a role. While India needs the U.S. more than Canada, it may not have a choice but to make a similar claim in the Canadian case as evidence begins to surface relating to the arrest of four suspects in the Nijjar killing. The U.S. could play a role in helping both countries find an uneasy compromise and permit the relationship to move forward.
The personal differences between the two prime ministers may prevent any significant improvement in the Canada-India relationship in the short term. But even if a comprehensive rebuilding of trust between the two countries awaits new leadership, they can take modest steps now to put the relationship on a more constructive path. The current state of suspended animation serves neither country’s interests. For Canada in particular, this could serve as a perfect opportunity to put pragmatic diplomacy to the test.