Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, left, and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, appear at a campaign event in Philadelphia, on Aug. 6.Matt Rourke/The Associated Press
Canadian politicians love to look down south and try to adopt America’s trends, debates and cultural wars as our own. They rarely fit, but it doesn’t stop them from smashing the wrong puzzle pieces together with their fists and, for example, announcing new Canadian gun control measures after a mass shooting in Texas.
We’re already seeing it happen over the course of the U.S. presidential election campaign. Liberal MP Mark Gerretsen has been trying to transpose the Democrats’ highly effective “weird” label for Republicans onto Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, with little success. Indeed, it’s roughly as effective as trying to cheat off a fellow student’s exam paper when the teacher has scrambled up the order of questions for each test.
And yet, they persist. CBC News reported last week that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is looking to echo the message of joy and optimism that reverberated through the recent Democratic National Convention, in hopes that it might help lift the party up from its 17-point rut.
It’s clear that the message is working for Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has managed to turn a race that President Joe Biden was poised to lose into one she now leads. In her speech to the convention, Ms. Harris spoke of a “nation ready to move forward,” and about fighting for the future of America while “guided by optimism and faith.” It was in stark contrast to the speech from former president Donald Trump to the Republican National Convention, in which he referenced Hannibal Lecter from The Silence of the Lambs and called America a “dumping ground for the rest of the world.”
The optimism message is a winner for Ms. Harris both because of the messenger, and because of the timing. Ms. Harris is a fresh face for the top of the ticket; she resuscitated a dying campaign and brought with her the prospect of actual electoral success, which will naturally breed excitement, hope and joy. Her election would be historic for women in America, which in itself evokes emotion and enthusiasm. And the joy message works because it seems to genuinely suit Ms. Harris’s personality, and voters know authenticity. Though Republicans briefly tried to attack her for her laugh, that angle flopped and they’ve abandoned it; Ms. Harris’s laugh is actually one of the more endearing things about her.
The message might not have taken off if the campaign had coincided with a more fraught social and economic atmosphere in the U.S. But generally speaking, things are good: violent crime, including murder, rape and aggravated assault, is dropping, according to FBI data. Inflation is slowing. The economy is booming. There are still plenty of problems, of course, but when things are relatively stable, it’s easy to get excited about the possibility of even better. But when things are bad, it’s hard to convince voters to smile and celebrate the future; instead, they tend to gravitate toward politicians who mirror their frustrations and echo their anger.
That’s why a message of joy and optimism won’t work in the current Canadian climate. To be frank: things aren’t great. The homicide rate in Canada has been steadily rising over the past decade (though down slightly in 2023). Car theft is so ubiquitous that Costco is selling driveway security bollards. Canada had the highest housing price-to-income ratio among Group of Seven countries, according to 2024 Q1 data compiled by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. One in five Canadians doesn’t have access to regular primary health care. And though like the U.S., inflation in Canada is slowing, our per-person growth is stagnant, and the unemployment rate, particularly among youth and new immigrants, is rising. If Mr. Trudeau stood before a crowd of non-partisan Canadians and told them to rejoice over the great possibilities and opportunities Canada holds, he’d probably get booed out of the room. They want to hear him first explain why those arrested for car theft keep getting let out on bail.
But even if the climate was right, Mr. Trudeau would be the wrong messenger. His face is not fresh – it’s nine years in – and it’s the one that many voters hold responsible for the myriad social and economic problems currently plaguing the country. A new Liberal leader would potentially be able to pull it off, but he or she would still be burdened with the weight of the incumbent government’s baggage. And needless to say, it wouldn’t work for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre either (not that there are any indications that he would try); his personality doesn’t suit a “hope and change” spirit. Instead, he has quite aptly tapped into the frustrations of the Canadian electorate, and echoed them back to demonstrate that they are being heard.
This is called understanding Canada’s unique conditions, and tailoring a message distinct from that in the United States. We are a whole separate country after all; we don’t need to cheat off of America’s exam paper.