Anders Aslund is the author of Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy.
By providing Ukraine with early military, political, and financial support, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration saved it from being overrun by Russia. Yet the conflict has been locked in a stalemate, which is not to Ukraine’s advantage. If elected, Kamala Harris should make it an explicit goal to turn today’s horrendous war of attrition into a Ukrainian victory. Ukraine’s surprising offensive in Russia’s Kursk region may be the beginning of a more promising development.
Ukraine’s own goals are clear: to restore full territorial integrity; to allow all displaced Ukrainian citizens – including the thousands of children kidnapped by Russia – to return; and to receive full compensation for the damage Russia has caused. By contrast, the United States currently has no strategy to speak of. The Biden administration merely claims that it will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” whereas Ms. Harris’s Republican challenger, Donald Trump, promises to end the war in a day, implying complete capitulation to the Kremlin.
For Ms. Harris, the current impasse is an opportunity. Two-thirds of Americans are rooting for Ukraine’s victory, and she has already dealt extensively with Ukraine, having met President Volodymyr Zelensky six times and led the U.S. delegation to the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland in June. As Vice-President, she has followed Mr. Biden’s lead; but as president, she could turn the war around and make Ukraine one of her big winning issues.
Doing so will require a comprehensive strategy backed by sufficient resources. The Biden administration’s policy is to defend Ukraine without provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin. But given that Mr. Putin would not survive a nuclear war, he is exceedingly unlikely to go down that path.
Another fundamental shortcoming of the Biden policy is the lack of any clear goal, which should be to provide Ukraine with enough support to defeat Russia. The Ukrainians are bravely fighting on their own. They are not calling for foreign troops; but they do need potent arms, the right to use them to target Russian bases, and sufficient funding from the West.
Ukraine received about US$100-billion in 2023 (half of it military assistance, and the rest budget support and humanitarian aid), and it is on track to receive around the same amount in 2024. While substantial, that is not enough to tip the balance. For an outright victory, Ukraine would probably need US$150-billion per year, with a doubling of military support to US$100-billion.
It is no secret where such funding can be found. The West has frozen US$280-billion in Russian reserves, two-thirds of which are held in the private Euroclear system in Belgium. The U.S. Congress has sensibly passed legislation authorizing the Department of the Treasury to seize frozen Russian assets, while demanding that the European Union do the same. But the EU has refused.
This European resistance makes no sense. With Russia violating international law on a daily basis, the Kremlin cannot credibly demand the protection of international law. Like the U.S., the EU needs to adopt legislation allowing for Russian funds to be seized and used to support Ukraine. Though only around US$5-billion has been located in the U.S., that money can be seized and delivered to Ukraine immediately to set an example for the Europeans. True, in June, the U.S. persuaded other G7 members to lend Ukraine US$50-billion by drawing on the future yields from frozen Russian funds. That was a good start. But Ukraine needs the money as soon as possible to defeat Russia.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February, 2022, the U.S., Great Britain and Canada were Ukraine’s primary sources of military aid and training. During the war’s early months, they were understandably reluctant to furnish the Ukrainians with the most sophisticated arms, for fear that Russia would seize them. But these fears were alleviated by the summer of 2022. For two years now, the U.S. could have been providing Ukraine with the weapons it needed to push the Russians back. Very little will happen unless America leads. The U.S. remains globally dominant in arms production and exports.
Finally, we come to the most absurd flaw in America’s Ukraine policy: the prohibition against using U.S.-supplied weapons to hit Russian bases from which Ukraine is being attacked. This policy is not even in keeping with the right to self-defence enshrined in the UN Charter. It should be revoked immediately.
The war in Ukraine could be a boon for Ms. Harris, but she must correct Mr. Biden’s mistakes and provide the additional resources Ukraine needs to defeat Russia. By seizing Russian sovereign assets and persuading U.S. allies to do the same, she can help Ukraine win without placing any additional budgetary burden on Americans.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. www.project-syndicate.org