U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speak prior to a NATO round table meeting at The Grove hotel and resort, in Watford, Hertfordshire, England, on Dec. 4, 2019.Frank Augstein/The Associated Press
All the consternation over what Donald Trump might do to our fair land after his jolting re-election triumph is not misplaced. But it isn’t the response strategy of Justin Trudeau and his Liberals that should be drawing all the attention.
There’s less than a year to go until our next election. There’s about an 80- to 90-per-cent chance Mr. Trudeau will be gone by then.
Mr. Trump wants him gone. To Trumpians, the lefty Liberal is about as popular as hoof-and-mouth disease. They will work if necessary to expedite his exit and clear a path for fellow populist Pierre Poilievre to take his place.
It stands to reason that the Trumpians much prefer the Conservative Leader. Like them, he’s anti-woke, anti-elitist, anti-mainstream media, anti-carbon tax, and anti-deep state.
Mr. Trudeau is trying to let on that all will be well with the incoming administration, saying this week that the two countries worked together as “friends and partners” in Mr. Trump’s first term, and “We’re going to do that again.”
That would be news to Elon Musk, one of Mr. Trump’s foremost influencers, who posted on X that Mr. Trudeau “will be gone in the upcoming election.” Or to Mike Waltz, Mr. Trump’s newly nominated national security adviser, who in referencing Mr. Poilievre posted earlier this year that “This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in.”
Or to Mr. Trump’s other cast members, like incoming defence secretary Pete Hegseth – whose chief qualification for the job is that he was a Fox News co-host – or rabid right-winger and immigrant demonizer Stephen Miller, who has been named deputy chief of staff in charge of policy.
The first cabinet of Mr. Trump had some moderates. This one so far is stocked with MAGA hardliners and Trump bootlickers. The ideological divide between them and the Canadian Liberals is as gaping as any two governments on this continent going all the way back to Confederation.
Mr. Trudeau’s hope is that Canadians appreciate how he handled the reckless president the first time around, and would prefer that he be around to deal with him again, rather than the inexperienced and parochial Mr. Poilievre.
That’s highly unlikely. Mr. Trump feels emboldened, vindicated by his election triumph, and will be inclined to be more authoritarian and demanding of submissiveness from Canada than in his first term. He bases much on personal relations, and his relations with Mr. Trudeau – he’s called him a “far-left lunatic” – have hardly been harmonious.
With the populist Mr. Poilievre, however, it could be different. The Conservative Leader has stayed quite quiet on the subject of Mr. Trump, fearing that given the widespread antipathy toward him in Canada it’s best to maintain a distance. But if elected, American relations could be his greatest challenge, and he needs to be ready.
In an interview before he passed away, Brian Mulroney, famous for his American bonding, told me one of the smartest things he did was to ignore the critics, even his own staffers, who told him that while he was Opposition leader he needed to stay away from the unpopular president, Ronald Reagan.
“There was anti-Americanism everywhere. When they told me I should not do this, what I said back was unprintable.” He went to Washington, and Mr. Reagan insisted he call him “Ron.” Mr. Mulroney told him he was not going to be like his prickly predecessor, Pierre Trudeau. “I laid out my agenda and said we’re going to fix all the problems.” He was thrilled when the Gipper took him out to the Rose Garden and lauded him at a press conference.
Donald Trump has a considerably worse reputation in Canada than Ronald Reagan, and Mr. Poilievre would have to be very careful. But he should heed the Mulroney example.
After Mr. Trump’s inauguration, when the dust has settled, he should make his way to Washington to try and establish a good rapport with him and big players like Mr. Musk. It could lead to concessions on issues like tariffs down the line.
Canada does have some cards to play, such as the big U.S. dependence on our oil exports. In Mr. Trump’s first term, when he levied tariffs on steel and aluminum, Ottawa responded with retaliatory levies that eventually got the Americans to lift theirs.
Mr. Trudeau and his team did in fact handle the threats well. But the Prime Minister was in his early years in office and was popular at home, abroad and in Washington.
A lot has changed. He’s much weakened, and Donald Trump much strengthened.