British Columbia voters face a pick-your-poison election this fall, as the incumbent NDP faces off with the newly reunited right, under the banner of the BC. Conservatives.
Do you prefer a party whose leader would not just scrap the provincial carbon tax but also ignores the basic science underpinning climate change? Or would you prefer a party that is fast eroding B.C.’s once enviable fiscal advantage and putting the province’s finances on a ruinous path?
For those unconcerned about climate change, the choice is easy – the Conservatives. For those unbothered by the NDP’s runaway spending, the choice is equally simple. But the rest of the B.C. electorate faces an unenviable choice.
If nothing else, John Rustad, leader of the BC Conservatives, has been consistent in downplaying the problem of climate change. He was ejected from the BC Liberal caucus in part for his statements questioning climate change. And in a meeting with The Globe and Mail’s editorial board in May, he stuck with the position that although the climate is changing, there’s no need to curtail carbon emissions. “It doesn’t matter how much we try to reduce carbon, it is not going to change the weather,” he said.
Mr. Rustad’s statement flies in the face of the science that says rising carbon emissions have fuelled the increase in global temperatures – and that curbing and ultimately reducing those emissions is critical to avoiding catastrophic changes. It’s worth noting that Mr. Rustad (as well as a policy statement on the BC Conservatives’ website) does not deny that the climate is changing, or that humans play a role. But the party does not see climate change as a crisis, and it does not propose to do anything to contribute to a global effort in reducing emissions.
For climate-concerned voters, there’s also a big question for the NDP: what will the party do if the federal Conservatives win power and scrap the federal fuel charge?
But the much bigger question for Premier David Eby and the NDP is whether the party is prepared to return to the fiscal moderation of former NDP premier John Horgan’s government, or will continue on with a spending spree that in just two years has produced a marked decline in the province’s finances.
One measure is the steep rise in B.C.’s debt burden. In fiscal 2023, the transition year between the Horgan and Eby governments, the province’s debt was 22.6 per cent of gross domestic product. That debt burden is projected to rise to 35.8 per cent in fiscal 2027. Ratings agencies have taken note: the province has had two credit downgrades on Mr. Eby’s watch.
B.C.’s debt ratio is still lower than that of many other provinces, but the trend is headed in the wrong direction, fast. And the rise is understated: the NDP’s 2024 budget lowballed growth in health and education spending, and the coming election campaign will undoubtedly see more spending promises.
A recent report from the federal Parliamentary Budget Officer paints an even more worrying picture of where B.C.’s finances are headed, and how much damage Mr. Eby’s government has done in less than two years.
In 2018, the PBO said that B.C.’s finances were essentially on a sustainable path, where debt would not inexorably rise as a percentage of the provincial economy. Taxes would need to rise, or spending would need to fall, by just 0.1 per cent of GDP to keep that from happening. Only Quebec was in a better position. By 2022, the province had lost some ground under Mr. Horgan’s administration, with a fiscal gap of 0.9 per cent of GDP.
Under Mr. Eby, that gap has exploded. Last month, the PBO issued a report that said B.C.’s fiscal gap is now 1.8 per cent of GDP, a doubling since 2022 and the worst outlook among the provinces. (To put that in perspective, 1.8 per cent of B.C’s 2024 GDP amounts to $7.6-billion.)
To keep debt under control, Mr. Eby (or Mr. Rustad) will need some combination of hefty tax increases or substantial spending cuts. What’s the plan? The Conservatives at least acknowledge there is a need to take action, although they have not yet laid out a plan. Meanwhile, the NDP is busy digging a deeper hole.
Climate change and B.C.’s deteriorating finances are both serious problems that need serious proposals from both of the parties contending for power. The province’s voters shouldn’t be forced to pick which crisis to ignore.