Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rises during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Oct. 2.Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press
Earlier rumblings among some Liberal MPs that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should resign appear to be quickly snowballing into a serious effort to force him out, with caucus members expected to present within days an official demand that he step down.
Three Liberal MPs have told The Globe and Mail that they anticipate the demand to be presented in two steps: first, in writing as soon as this weekend, laying out the fact that constituents are telling MPs that Mr. Trudeau needs to go; and second, in an open microphone session at the party’s next caucus meeting in Ottawa, on Wednesday.
Unlike past talk of a caucus revolt, which gained no momentum, many Liberals say they believe that this time is different and that since Friday it has become clear that the Prime Minister has a problem on his hands.
Two of the Liberal MPs told The Globe they believe that at least 20 MPs have agreed to put their names to this new attempt to oust Mr. Trudeau. If those numbers hold up, another MP said they do not believe he can stay on.
So far, there’s no ultimatum being attached to those demands, as there is no consensus among dissenters about what they might or could do if the Prime Minister won’t go, nor are they prepared to demand that he resign by a certain time, prorogue Parliament or take any other specific steps, three caucus members say.
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The Prime Minister’s Office is skeptical that the number of dissenting MPs has broken 20. A senior government official said they believe that only about a handful of MPs will come forward and, of that number, they said a few have already decided not to run for re-election. However, a second official said they believe that the total number of dissenters is more uncertain.
The first official said they think the overwhelming majority of caucus does not feel that the public dissent aired in the past week has been helpful.
The Globe is not naming the Liberal sources or other government officials so they could speak freely without fear of repercussion.
The first official said they are not playing down the frustrations that caucus feels or ignoring the issues raised. They said they expect a frank conversation behind closed doors on Wednesday and that one of the options under consideration is for the Prime Minister to kick his staff out of the meeting to allow MPs to speak more freely.
Since Friday, The Globe has spoken with 26 Liberals, including 20 MPs. The vast majority of them denied any involvement in the campaign against the Prime Minister. However, skepticism about the credibility of this revolt has waned since the weekend. Just three days ago, the majority of Liberals who spoke to The Globe questioned whether this campaign would come to fruition when others have not.
A significant number of the MPs told The Globe that they wish their colleagues had not aired their grievances in public because they believe it only helps the Conservatives and makes it look like the minority Liberals are in disarray. Several said they want Mr. Trudeau to stay at the top and that the public dissent has made them more determined that he remain.
But already three Liberal MPs have publicly called for leadership change: New Brunswick’s Wayne Long, Quebec’s Alexandra Mendès, and PEI’s Sean Casey.
In an interview with The Globe on Wednesday, Mr. Casey said he is not part of the internal campaign to oust Mr. Trudeau but he has been contacted by some in the group and he will likely sign the letter to the Prime Minister once he has had a chance to read it.
“They’re moving forward methodically and deliberately,” Mr. Casey said about the MPs behind the effort.
Mr. Casey said the country owes Mr. Trudeau a “debt of gratitude” and that he believes history will remember him much more kindly than today’s polls would indicate. But at this point, he said, the Prime Minister has become the top issue for voters in his riding and their opinions are “fully baked.”
“The people who I represent have tuned him out, they’ve had enough, they want change,” Mr. Casey said. “They don’t want the change that is represented by Poilievre and they really, really want another option,” he said, referring to the Conservative Leader.
While the Prime Minister had won a reprieve from caucus at their early September gathering in Nanaimo, B.C., Mr. Casey said that since then, a lack of action has led to the burgeoning dissent.
He noted that the Liberals lost a second key riding, in a Montreal by-election, the government’s control in the House has slipped and the PMO had not taken any concrete steps to make changes either through an ad campaign or a new agenda. And he noted that all of that comes even as the next election is likely sooner rather than later given the minority Parliament.
“It is my hope that the Prime Minister will take my advice and the advice of many more and move along,” Mr. Casey said, adding that he delivered that message directly in a meeting on July 5.
He said what happens next will depend on just how many people speak out, but to date Mr. Casey noted that the Prime Minister has met every suggestion he resign with a brushoff.
“I hope that this effort has enough support that he won’t see that as a viable option,” the PEI MP said.
However, his caucus colleague, Ontario MP Chandra Arya e-mailed Liberal MPs urging them to end the public dissent and saying that he believes a leadership race at this juncture would be “disastrous.”
Unlike the Democrats south of the border, he noted, in the e-mail obtained by The Globe, that there is no natural successor waiting in the wings and foresees “a vicious battle for leadership that will fracture the fragile party structure.”
He asked Liberals for more patience, arguing that positive economic indicators will leave Canadians more receptive to the Liberal message in the next election.
Mr. Arya ended his e-mail reminding his colleagues of the story of the miner who quit when he was just three feet from gold and said if they give up now they will be handing the gold to the Conservatives.