Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement in Lebanon, on Oct. 20.Nathan VanderKlippe/The Globe and Mail
The possible spread of war to Lebanon risks not just a conflagration across the Middle East. It also stands to spark a refugee crisis, sending waves of Syrian refugees to European shores, a Lebanese political leader is warning.
Escalation of fighting between Lebanon and Israel risks a conflict that spreads into a “belt of fire,” warns Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, one of the most powerful parties in the Lebanese parliament. A Maronite Christian who has served as Lebanon’s foreign minister and energy minister, he is the son-in-law of Michel Aoun, the country’s president until his term ended last year.
Sanctioned by the U.S. and accused of corruption and stirring anti-refugee sentiment, Mr. Bassil nonetheless remains an influential legislative power-broker in Lebanon, where his party has historically been aligned with Hezbollah, the armed Shia Muslim group.
Hezbollah’s leaders have warned that they are prepared to open a second front against Israel at any time, and border skirmishes between Lebanese militants and the Israeli army have grown increasingly heavy.
There are already signs that the conflict in Israel is expanding, Mr. Bassil said.
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‘This means widening the war. So it can become regional,” he said.
And what lies ahead may be much worse: “I can see a belt of fire.”
Political leaders in Lebanon say they are working to keep the country out of a war that will, Mr. Bassil said, visit upon his country fresh catastrophe.
“War is a huge threat, one to the existence of the state and its institutions, which are already diluted,” he said, a reference to the economic and political crisis that has stripped Lebanon’s government of much of its function and impoverished many of its people.
Mr. Bassil spoke to The Globe and Mail from his home high in the northern Lebanese mountains, next to a ski resort and overlooking a development of luxury villas.
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It’s a stronghold of exposed wood and thick timber beams that sits a world apart from the difficult circumstances for many in the country, not least roughly 1.5 million Syrian refugees, many of whom arrived after the start of Syria’s civil war in 2011. Roughly 90 per cent of them live in what the United Nations calls extreme poverty.
Mr. Bassil has been openly critical of Syrians in Lebanon. He blames them for “threatening our culture,” and warns that many will flee if the country plunges into a destructive conflict with Israel.
“I think the refugees in that situation will go to Europe, because they will have the sea open, and for them the situation in Syria economically is not good,” he said.
Lebanon’s political establishment has spoken out against the prospect of escalation with Israel, with caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati saying this week that, “it’s of no one’s interest to open a front from southern Lebanon because the Lebanese are unable to bear the repercussions of a new war.”
“We don’t want war,” Mr. Bassil said. “And we want to do anything possible to avoid it. But we know that this is not only in our hands.”
Lebanon has little state capacity to intervene in Hezbollah’s actions. The country’s currency and banking system have collapsed. So, too, has its political infrastructure: The country is ruled by a caretaker cabinet whose powers are limited and has no sitting president.
The war in Israel means it should be a priority to elect a president, Mr. Bassil said, pledging renewed efforts to mediate a solution next week. For now, however, he sees little sign of progress. Hezbollah has not altered its support for Suleiman Frangieh, a childhood friend of Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad, who other Lebanese parties have rejected.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah and its backers in Iran – not the Lebanese government – hold the power to decide how to defend the country’s southern border, where tit-for-tat reprisals since Oct. 7 have included the exchange of anti-tank missiles and artillery fire that have killed civilians, soldiers and journalists in Lebanon and Israel.
“What is happening now is escalation that can be considered by both sides as a reason to attack,” Mr. Bassil said. If either side decides to do so, “that’s where I’m afraid that this may not be contained.”