Smoke rises after a shelling in Um el-Tot, a Lebanese border village with Israel, in south Lebanon on Oct. 19.Hassan Ammar/The Associated Press
Canada is preparing for what could prove to be the biggest civilian evacuation in its history, one that is raising questions about the country’s obligations to its overseas passport holders before it has even begun.
Tens of thousands of Canadian citizens live in Lebanon, where fear of a looming war between the powerful militant group Hezbollah and Israel – in the wake of its war with Hamas – has driven airlines to cancel flights and some embassies to begin evacuating staff and diplomats.
The Canadian government, like others, has issued increasingly strong warnings against travel to Lebanon, and has urged those already in the country to leave while commercial travel is available.
At the same time, Canada’s military and diplomats have begun intensive preparation for an evacuation whose necessity has yet to be determined – but which could become its largest in history, a title currently held by the last Lebanon evacuation, in 2006. More than 14,500 Canadians in Lebanon have registered with the government, although the total number of Canadians in the country is believed to be several times that.
The Canadian Armed Forces has now stationed dozens of people in the eastern Mediterranean, including at a command and control centre in Cyprus, according to a person with knowledge of the planning operation. The Globe and Mail is not identifying the individual because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
The Forces did not immediately respond to a Globe request for comment Saturday.
The Israeli-Lebanon border is seen on October 21, 2023.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
Canada and other countries have spent 15 years attending exercises in Cyprus to prepare for a new crisis in the eastern Mediterranean.
Ottawa is already using a CC-150 Polaris aircraft in the region. It seats roughly 150 and has been used to fly more than 1,500 Canadians from Tel Aviv to Athens. It could be redirected to Lebanon, if airports there remain open, the person said.
If war does break out in Lebanon, it’s not clear that an airlift will be possible. The Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport is situated in a Hezbollah-controlled area of the city. In 2006, it was among the first Israeli targets during a 34-day war that prompted the Canadian evacuation of 14,370 people taken by sea from Lebanon.
Similar plans are under way today, with Ottawa examining options for passenger vessels, including cruise ships, that could be chartered for evacuation. Capacity on those ships could be shared with other Western countries, the source said, emphasizing that Canada’s preparations are precautionary, and no decision has been taken to begin an evacuation.
While skirmishes between Lebanese militants and the Israeli military have grown more intense in the past two weeks, they remain contained to the border area.
The number of Canadian citizens in Lebanon today is believed to be roughly equal to what it was in 2006, when 39,100 registered as present in the country.
Then, the Canadian government chartered 61 flights to bring evacuees to Canada, in addition to four military flights. (Even the prime minister’s aircraft was put into service, bringing back evacuees after a visit by Stephen Harper to Paris).
That evacuation cost Canada $94-million. It’s not clear who would pay if an evacuation becomes necessary this year.
Israeli soldiers fuel a Merkava tank on a road close to the border with Lebanon on October 21, 2023.GORAN TOMASEVIC/The Globe and Mail
Ottawa has received quotes of at least $1,000 per person for sea transport alone from Lebanon to Cyprus, according to a person who has been involved in those discussions. The Globe is not identifying that person because they are not authorized to discuss commercial details.
From there it is not clear how evacuees would return to Canada; Air Canada does not maintain scheduled service to Cyprus. The airline did not respond to a request for comment.
The question of who should pay, however, is likely to prove controversial. In 2006, at least nine in 10 evacuees were dual-nationals, some of whom “never lived in Canada, they never paid taxes,” said Louis de Lorimier, who was ambassador to Lebanon from 2005 to 2008.
Canada’s engagement in an evacuation is extensive, Mr. de Lorimier said. In 2006, members of Canada’s elite special forces, Joint Task Force 2, “were driving around the country trying to find Canadians,” he said.
This time, the Canadian government has offered clear advance warning. The latest travel advice says “consular services during an active conflict, including evacuation of citizens, may be limited,” and counsels: “you should consider leaving by commercial means if you can do so safely.”
Mr. de Lorimier questions whether it’s reasonable for taxpayers to bail out those who fail to heed such advice.
“If the prior notice to leave is given sufficiently before the actual problem occurs, then government should not pay for that,” Mr. de Lorimier said.
Canadians living in Lebanon have already begun to argue the opposite – not merely that Canada should pay for an evacuation, but that it should give financial assistance to people once they arrive.
At a meeting in the Lebanese city of Tripoli this week, the most pressing question was “will the Canadian government help us? Because we can’t help ourselves if we were to leave,” said Tarek Kamali, whose father is a warden, an informal Canadian consular representative.
Lebanon remains in the grip of a lengthy financial and economic crisis. Most people have lost their life savings in collapsed banks. They simply don’t have the means to survive in Canada, Mr. Kamali said. He suggested a program of resettlement assistance for six months that could be repaid in time.
“As a Canadian citizen, I feel that it’s owed to me,” he said.
Failing government help, Canadians may take their chances staying in Lebanon, he said.
Ottawa already came under heavy criticism for the chaotic 2006 exodus that was overseen by an insufficient number of government officials posted abroad. That evacuation prompted a review by a Senate committee, which delivered its report in 2007.
“Contingency planning and overall preparation of Canadian missions abroad, logistical or otherwise must be strengthened,” the report said.
“I think we’ve learned a lot in the ensuing years,” said Peter Boehm, who was a senior Global Affairs Canada civil servant involved in that earlier evacuation.
Mr. Boehm, who was appointed to the Senate in 2018, said in an interview this week that Canada cannot rely on military assets the way larger countries such as the United States can.
That means Ottawa must co-operate with other middle powers instead of trying to outbid them for vessels, he said. “We found ourselves in 2006 competing for ships and boats out of north Cyprus,” he said. “We were trying to ink contracts with ships that could pick up our citizens.”
Mr. Boehm said that the Canadian Armed Forces has since acquired huge Globemaster cargo planes that give the military a better capacity to ferry goods and people around the world. Global Affairs has also created a flying squad of diplomats to bolster capacity in times of crisis.
But he added that no amount of preplanning can ensure that an evacuation effort will go as smoothly as everyone involved would like. “You can’t turn aircraft inventory around on a dime,” he said.