Supporters of the ruling Kulmiye party dance and chant party slogans during a final campaign rally in Hargeisa in the self-declared state of Somaliland, ahead of long-delayed presidential and legislative elections on Nov. 13.LUIS TATO/AFP/Getty Images
One of the unheralded winners of the U.S. election could be a remote region of six million people on the northeastern tip of Africa that has been fighting for recognition of its independence for three decades.
Somaliland, officially seen by the United Nations as a region of Somalia, has failed to persuade any countries to accept its statehood claim. But Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory has breathed new life into Somaliland’s prolonged quest for independence, with some of his conservative loyalists suggesting it could emerge as a key element in his future Africa policy.
Somaliland, which operates beyond the control of Somalia’s national government, has touted itself as the most peaceful and democratic place in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland’s own elections, set to be held on Wednesday, will be another chance for it to showcase its credentials. It says it has attracted more than 90 international observers to monitor the voting.
Somaliland also has geopolitical assets – including the strategically located Port of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden – that could strongly appeal to Mr. Trump’s transactional view of U.S. foreign policy.
While the U.S. president-elect has said little about Africa in his campaign this year, one consistent theme in his first term in the White House was his rivalry with China, including a pushback against Chinese influence in Africa. With Beijing increasingly entrenching its military presence and commercial links in nearby Djibouti, which has the biggest port in the Horn, a U.S. partnership with Somaliland could allow the Pentagon to develop a new naval base in a region of heavy East-West shipping traffic.
Somaliland is one of the few African issues to be explicitly cited in Project 2025, the 900-page policy document prepared by the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank that is widely seen as an indicator of Mr. Trump’s likely priorities, although he has officially disavowed the recommendations. The document calls for U.S. efforts to “counter malign Chinese activity” across Africa. It proposes “the recognition of Somaliland statehood as a hedge against the U.S.’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”
Somaliland also appeals to Mr. Trump’s conservative supporters because it has a pro-Western government that has been willing to tangle with China. Its government established diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 2020, despite heavy pressure from Beijing.
Two of the most prominent Africa specialists in the first Trump administration, Peter Pham and Tibor Nagy, have called for closer U.S. relations with Somaliland under the Trump administration next year. Both have been highly critical of the government of Somalia, based in Mogadishu, which has refused to make any concessions to Somaliland in its statehood bid.
Mr. Nagy, a long-time U.S. diplomat in Africa who was appointed by Mr. Trump as his assistant secretary of state for African affairs, last week criticized Mogadishu for its “incompetence and corruption.” In a social-media post, he said he hopes Washington “credits Somaliland for their progress.”
Mr. Pham, who was the U.S. special envoy for the Sahel region during Mr. Trump’s first presidency and is widely expected to be appointed to an Africa-related post again, predicted on the weekend that the next administration will review U.S. policy on Somalia and Somaliland after it takes office in January.
“One won’t know the outcome of the review until it is done, but the status quo of ‘faith-based’ support for Mogadishu is unsustainable,” Mr. Pham told The Globe and Mail.
He noted that Mr. Trump had withdrawn hundreds of U.S. soldiers from Somalia in 2020, although the decision was later reversed by President Joe Biden.
“I think president Trump made the right decision to pull U.S. military personnel out of Somalia, and I see no national interests that justify risking American treasure, much less blood, for the regime in Mogadishu,” Mr. Pham told The Globe.
Any shift in U.S. policy on Somaliland would have major implications for the Horn. Somaliland has close relations with Ethiopia and has promised to allow it access to a seaport in Somaliland, despite strong objections from Mogadishu.
Under Mr. Trump, there are signs that Ethiopia, too, could become a closer U.S. ally. The Ethiopian government has been resentful of Mr. Biden’s policies, including his decision to end U.S. trade concessions to the country in 2022 because of its human-rights violations in the war in the north.