A billboard advertises the Democratic presidential debates across from the Knight Concert Hall at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts Monday, June 24, 2019, in Miami.Lynne Sladky/AP Photo
The race to beat President Donald Trump in 2020 kicks into high gear this week. A historically large slate of 25 candidates is vying for the Democratic presidential nomination, with most set to take the stage in Miami on Wednesday and Thursday for two nights of debate. The performances represent the first major public events of the campaign, setting the stage for next year’s presidential elections.
Here’s what you need to know about the first Democratic debates:
Who is debating?
With such a massive field of candidates, debate organizers limited the pool to those who had received at least one per cent support in three separate polls, and earned donations from at least 65,000 voters in 20 different states.
Names were then drawn randomly to determine the schedule of the debates, with leading candidates – those who had at least two per cent support in the polls – spread evenly between the two nights.
Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, sitting second or third in most public opinion polls, will be the most high-profile candidate on the stage Wednesday. She is set to square off against New Jersey Senator Cory Booker, former Texas Representative Beto O’Rourke, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio.
On Thursday, former Vice-President Joe Biden, who leads the race, will face several other front-runners, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, California Senator Kamala Harris, and South Bend Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
The other candidates who made the cut for Wednesday night are: former Obama administration official Julian Castro; former Maryland Congressman John Delaney; Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii Washington Governor Jay Inslee and Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan.
Thursday night’s debate also includes: Colorado Senator Michael Bennet; New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand; former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper; California Congressman Eric Swalwell; Marianne Williamson, a self-help author; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.
Who won’t be on the stage?
Four declared candidates failed to make the cut: Montana Governor Steve Bullock, former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel; Miramar, Fla. Mayor Wayne Messam, Massachusetts Congressman Seth Moulton. A fifth, former Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak, only declared his candidacy on Sunday.
How will it work?
The two-hour debates will feature five different moderators from NBC, MSNBC and Spanish-language network Telemundo. Each candidate will get five minutes for an introduction, with candidates expected to get little more than 10 minutes total each of total speaking time.
How much time will they spend attacking Trump?
Polls consistently show that Democratic voters are focused on finding the best candidate to stand up to President Trump. That is likely to prove to be a challenge given that the president’s approval rating, while at just 43 per cent, remains roughly where it was when he took office. That suggests his supporters have not abandoned him en masse.
Expect candidates to spend a lot of their time attacking Mr. Trump while using their criticisms to distinguish themselves on policy issues like immigration, the U.S.-Mexico border and international relations. This is particularly true for Mr. Biden, who has staked his campaign on being the candidate with the most credibility and experience to take on the president.
How much time will they spend attacking each other?
The early days of the Democratic campaign have been relatively polite, in part to avoid a repeat of the bitter personal attacks that came to define the 2016 Republican primaries. But with the race heating up, gloves are starting to come off.
With a sizable lead in most public opinion polls, Mr. Biden is likely to be the main target of attacks. Mr. Booker demanded the former vice-president apologize for comments last week about having worked with segregationists in the Senate, prompting Mr. Biden to in turn demand an apology from Mr. Booker.
As an independent senator and self-professed socialist who ran again Ms. Clinton in 2016, Mr. Sanders is also likely to come under attack, particularly from rival Ms. Warren. But with little time for candidates to make an impression, and political rivals split between the two nights, expect a handful of well-timed barbs rather than extended fireworks.
How much time will they spend on the issues?
The debates could offer voters a deeper look into the fissures that have emerged among the broad slate of Democratic hopefuls.
So far, candidates largely agree on policies that have widespread support among Democratic voters, such as the need to tackle climate change, expand gun control and address the treatment of migrant detainees at the border. But candidates are divided on several others, from impeaching Mr. Trump, to scrapping private health insurance in favour of government-run universal health care, to reparations for African-Americans to address the generational effects of slavery. The reaction to the debates could help determine which issues animate Democratic voters the most.
Why do these debates matter?
The debates offer voters a chance to get to know the massive field of candidates, many of whom are not yet household names.
Front-runners Mr. Biden, Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren have the most to lose since embarrassing gaffes could push them off the top of the polls. Ms. Harris, Mr. O’Rourke and Mr. Booker each launched campaigns with much fanfare, but have struggled to remain in the spotlight. The debates could offer a chance to reassert themselves. Lesser-known candidates like Mr. Buttigieg, Ms. Klobuchar and Mr. Castro could use the national television appearance to become a breakout star.
The debates will also offer a look at the mood of the Democratic Party, which recaptured the house last fall on the strength of both young urban progressives and a slate of moderate candidates who captured Republican-voting swing districts.
Whether Democratic voters want a moderate presidential candidate who can rebuild the sort of broad coalition that helped elect Barack Obama, or an insurgent who can run the kind of change campaign that won Mr. Trump the White House, will start to become clearer after this week.
How will Trump respond?
Mr. Trump has a habit of vigorously attacking his political opponents on Twitter and the debates offer a chance for him to promote his own re-election campaign. During an interview on Fox News last week, host Sean Hannity urged the president to live Tweet a running commentary during the debates. “I wasn’t thinking about it, but maybe I will now,” Mr. Trump said.
What happens next?
CNN is set to host a second round of debates in Detroit at the end of July, following similar qualification rules to this week’s debates. But the field of candidates isn’t likely to narrow until fall.
Debates planned for September will require candidates to earn at least two per cent support in four separate public opinion polls and at least 130,000 donors, a bar only half of the current candidates now meet.
A standout performance on Wednesday or Thursday could help lesser-known candidates hit that threshold, while stumbles could effectively end some campaigns before the fall.
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