Here are Monday’s updates and key things to know about the U.S. election

When is the U.S. election?
Who is leading in the polls?
Swing states and Electoral College explained
Divided over democracy
Key background on the issues

This story is no longer being updated. For our latest news on the U.S. election, visit tgam.ca/us-election-updates.

What you need to know

Latest updates

Kamala Harris says none of the vitriol at Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally will support the dreams and aspirations of the American people and is “fanning the fuel” of division.
Shares of Mr. Trump’s media company surged to their highest since June, as betting odds favoured him in the final stretch of the race to the White House.
Hundreds of ballots were destroyed overnight in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash., after early-morning fires were set in ballot drop boxes. FBI and other authorities said they were investigating.
Philadelphia prosecutors are suing to stop a political action committee controlled by billionaire Elon Musk from awarding $1-million to registered U.S. voters in battleground states, CNBC reported on Monday.
Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump continued their swing-state tours on Monday in Michigan and Georgia, respectively, as their parties’ campaign rhetoric heats up ahead of Nov. 5.

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Even in rural areas where there is practically no immigration, border security has come to define the race, as The Globe’s Nathan VanderKlippe learned reporting in Montana. There, he also spoke with Native American tribes whose members may have a decisive influence in a strategic senate race.
Over the summer, reporter Ian Brown and photojournalist Barbara Davidson toured the swing states by bus and car, respectively, to take the pulse of divided U.S. public opinion.

Commentary

Ahead of the U.S. election, Ukrainians feel cornered by forces beyond their control. Michael Bociurkiw writes.
Notwithstanding Mr. Trump’s erratic behaviour and contortions of the truth, he might still win, contributing columnist Debra Thompson writes.
In his new book, veteran U.S. journalist Bob Woodward has given Americans a dire warning about fascism at the gates, columnist Lawrence Martin writes.

When is the U.S. election? When do we know results?

Polling hours on Nov. 5 will vary state by state, with the earliest ones opening at 6 a.m. (ET). Polls generally close between 6 to 9 p.m. local time, but governments can ask the courts for extensions. Once the counting of in-person and mail-in ballots starts, it’s anyone’s guess how long it will take to get a result: In 2020, logistical problems, disputes and recounts left the outcome uncertain for days. Until then, Globe readers can get the latest news in their inboxes through the Morning Update newsletter, or subscribe to the U.S. election topic page.

Who is leading in the polls?

Nationally, the main presidential candidates are effectively deadlocked, according to the latest tracking by FiveThirtyEight, a poll-aggregation service owned by the ABC news network. Kamala Harris and the Democrats are slightly ahead in FiveThirtyEight’s national averages, but still within the margin of error. All but a few states (more on those later) are solidly behind either Ms. Harris or Donald Trump and the Republicans.

Where Kamala Harris stands

Ms. Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, must see the Democrats through a turbulent campaign that, until late July, centred on President Joe Biden, who agreed not to run again after a poor debate performance and questions about the 81-year-old’s mental fitness. The party and its donors united quickly behind Ms. Harris, 60, an unprecedented process that, in a country with long election cycles, left her with less time than other candidates to win over the public. While she is already a known quantity to Americans – she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2016, and as Vice-President, handled challenging files from foreign policy to immigration – that also means she must win over constituencies skeptical of that record, such as Arab American voters angry over her support for Israel, and working-class voters unhappy with rising inflation.

Where Donald Trump stands

Since losing the 2020 election, Mr. Trump, 78, has been convicted in a felony fraud case and found liable for sexual abuse, and is still fighting in court against other allegations of serious crimes during his presidency. Through rallies, interviews and the social-media platform he owns, he continues to spread conspiracy theories and threats of retribution against prosecutors and law enforcement. Anti-immigrant rhetoric is, as in 2020, central to his campaign, and promises of mass deportations and border walls still resonate with his die-hard MAGA base in border states.

Supporters watch Donald Trump address New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, where he spoke more than two hours late after a string of warm-up acts from billionaire Elon Musk, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and his sons Eric and Don Jr. Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Kamala Harris spent Sunday in Philadelphia, leading a rally at The Alan Horwitz ‘Sixth Man’ Center. There, she stressed that the deadline for early voting is Tuesday: ‘Get it done tomorrow if you can.’ Eloisa Lopez/Reuters

Philadelphia is the largest city in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most Electoral College votes in play. A temporary exhibit at John F. Kennedy Plaza reminds locals of their decisive role. Hannah McKay/Reuters

Map of the swing states, and the Electoral College explained

Swing states – sometimes called purple states, for their split loyalties between Democratic blue and Republican red – can make all the difference in close races such as this one.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are purple because they chose Mr. Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020; so is Nevada, whose Democratic wins were close both times. North Carolina may also be in play for Ms. Harris because of shifting demographics and a gubernatorial scandal, among other factors. To see what happens if each of these states swings red or blue, use our interactive tool to explore the different scenarios.

Swing states would matter a lot less if not for the Electoral College that Americans have used since the late 1700s. Nobody wins the presidency simply by getting the most votes nationwide: Instead, those votes determine a list of 538 people called electors, whom the states assign to pick the president. Some states have more electors than others, and different rules for choosing who they are: Some are party officials, but many are regular citizens.

In all but two states, the Democrats or Republicans get electors on a winner-take-all basis. If, for instance, Ms. Harris wins California’s popular vote, she gets all 54 electors. That’s not how it works in Maine and Nebraska, which can pick mixed groups of electors based on congressional and popular votes.

If the college’s vote results in a Harris-Trump tie, the new House of Representatives breaks it via a process that hasn’t been used since 1825. The legislative blocs from each state pick one candidate, and whoever gets 26 or more states wins. “Contingent elections” like these give disproportionate voting power to less populous red states, which are numerous enough that the House would likely pick Mr. Trump.

Counter-protesters at Mr. Trump's Madison Square Garden brought signs calling him a would-be dictator and likening the gathering to a Nazi rally. Inside, the speakers rebuffed the comparisons: 'I don’t see no stinkin' Nazis in here,' ex-wrestler Hulk Hogan said.Yuki Iwamura/The Associated Press

Divided over democracy

Each candidate is, in their own way, framing this election as a battle for the future of democracy itself. Ms. Harris has called Mr. Trump a “fascist,” pointing to Project 2025 – a think tank’s proposal to stack the public service with GOP loyalists – and warning that, if re-elected, he would seek “unchecked power” and a military loyal only to him. Mr. Trump has distanced himself from Project 2025, but has spent months proposing his own purges of U.S. institutions, and casting doubt on the integrity of the voting process. In polls over the past year, a majority of Republicans say they believe his false claims that the 2020 election was illegitimate, and are heeding his baseless warnings of more fraud to come.

Fact checks from The Globe’s Patrick Dell

Trump repeated false election claims in podcast with Joe Rogan

Progress 2028 isn’t tied to Harris campaign, plus claims about missing migrant children and EV spending debunked

Examining ‘grossly exaggerated’ claims about Venezuelan gang activity in a Colorado city

Key background on the issues

With reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Globe staff

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What you need to know

Latest updates

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